SHORT TERM: consolidation continues, DOW -22
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller was reported higher: +0.5% vs -0.7%. The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1408, bounced to 1411, and then pulled back to 1406 by 10:00. The market had closed at SPX 1410 yesterday. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported lower: 60.6 vs 65.9. The market then rallied to SPX 1414 by 10:30, but pulled back again to 1409 by 11:30. For the rest of the day the market stayed within the SPX 1409-1414 range, closing at 1409.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude rose 70 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Tomorrow: Q2 GDP (est. +1.6%) at 8:30, Pending homes sales at 10:00, then the FED’s beige book at 2:00.
The market opened lower today, touched SPX 1406, rallied to 1414, and then traded within that eight point range for the rest of the day. Short term momentum hit oversold at the low, but could not generate much of a bounce past neutral during that day. This market appears to be waiting for something. Tomorrow’s GDP number and FED beige book could be it.
Short term support remains at SPX 1402/03 and the 1386 pivot, with resistance at 1413/15 and 1422/27. Short term momentum hit oversold today then bounced. The short term OEW charts turned negative again today as the market continues to vacillate around the SPX 1410 swing point. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
The ES trading range for the last 3 days has been around 15 points. Is it really so that everyone is waiting for Ben @ Jackson ? I cant believe it…!? If so the market is really set up for a big surprise both ways IMHO.
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It’s the last week of the summer.
equities near 4 year highs
P Diddy’s white party @ the Hamptoms
Kids going back to school.
75% automated trading as it is already so only 25% of Humans at best at anytime
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Grains thats a different story
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Isaac is a bad mofo….ugly
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Grains are looking interesting. I started a small corn position today. I take it the corn crops are past help from Isaac. Will a lot of rain at this point hurt the harvest?
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mm4398
At this point and actually for a few weeks rain has had no benefit for ZC
ZS could benefit but with an early crop harvest for whatever corn is out there a muddy field would not help the situation I would think
We have a poster here MCK who is a grain farmer in Iowa and she has been giving some in the field comments so I’d like to hear what she says.
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I didn’t do anything with soybeans b/c of the rain. Though both charts look very nice at this point.
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For the past 8 trading days the market has remained between SPX 1394 and 1410: just barely more than a 1% swing. We checked the weekly charts looking for a similar situation: a tight trading range and declining volume. And sure enough we found another period, such as this, during Major wave 3 of Primary I. That uptrend appeared to have stalled, while gradually creeping up, in December 2010. After the holidays ended the market took off to the upside. Labor Day is a bit more than two weeks away. 8/15 Tony – this looks to be playing out very nicely. See ya guys next Tuesday
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thanks for that quote HDI Absolutely !! When in doubt,re-read and think about what Tony has written. Thanks to both of you! Enjoy ur weekend everyone!
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Tony, here are those spreads http://markets.ft.com/RESEARCH/Markets/Government-Bond-Spreads Can you give us ur thoughts please? Thanks.
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Portugal 8.10%
Ireland 4.64%
Italy 4.39%
Greece 22.49%
Spain 5.11%
Thanks CB.
Think Draghi may limit the spreads to 4.0% going forward, with the exception of Greece.
This way, if they get their budgets in order, the spreads will decline.
The ECB no longer accepts Greek bonds as collateral. So they are on their own for now.
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Thanks Tony. I bet in the end thye’ll love to be on their own.. things usually work out best without “help”.
here’s a weird headline of the day…. “Going before the microphones after meeting with Mario Monti, Angela Merkel says she agrees with Mario Draghi that granting the ESM a banking license is incompatible with EU treaties (has she been tipped off on the German Constitutional Court ruling?).” seeking Alpha
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Think the ECB, like the FED, wants total control in monetary policy.
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thanks Tony..that’s interesting..without having the world reserve currency status, though…their licence to print is not as liberal as the Fed’s..that’ a bit of a problem..who’s gonna hold that stuff? OK Russia,China, the UAE and Gisele Bundchen 😉 will all try to help but they tried that already in 2005-2006 and we are where we are today – the USD is still king…interesting times again =)
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Sell the hurricane buy the high pressure
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Time for the Russell 2000 to lead? Interesting read: “The message is simple and clear — strength in small-caps means risk sentiment is improving as money grows more confident in less liquid names. This, alongside other intermarket trends, continues to suggest that the trend higher in equities remains likely to continue and that risk taking is just getting started in the stock market.”
More: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-small-cap-message-2012-08-29?siteid=yhoof2
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Exactly… agree 100%!
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thanks Mike! Sounds really good.. Let’s have that lift-off :))
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CC tagged 2600 exactly. I don’t think anybody is even paying attention to it. Could be huge short.
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CC ? > Date: Wed, 29 Aug 2012 14:41:01 +0000 > To: oewtony@msn.com >
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cocoa, nice cheap day margin. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CC&p=m5
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