monday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrend high then pullback, DOW -3

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened at SPX 1385 – one point lower than friday’s close. The market then started to rally, hitting SPX 1392 around 10:30. Then with an extremely overbought condition it started to pullback. At 11:00 the FED issued the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120730a.htm. At 11:30 the SPX hit 1381, rallied to 1386 by 1:30, and then stayed within those two levels into a 1385 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude slipped 60 cents, Gold lost $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum declined from extremely overbought heading toward neutral. Tomorrow, the FED starts its two day FOMC meeting. At 8:30 Personal income/spending and PCE prices. At 9:00 Case-Shiller housing prices. Then Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Consumer confidence at 10:00.

Today the market opened 1 point lower, rallied 4 points above friday’s high, then pulled back 11 points before ending the day where it opened SPX 1385. Today’s pullback was not surprising considering how overbought the market was after friday’s close. In fact, a further pullback to either the 1372 or 1363 pivot would be considered quite normal after a 60+ point rally in the SPX, (1329-1392). With the FED and the ECB meeting over the next few days some volatility should be expected. While we do not expect the FED to do anything substantial, except to mention they are ready to purchase additional Bonds, if need be. The ECB, on the other side of the pond, is expected to make an important announcement.

Short term support remains at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 pivot and SPX 1402/03. Short term momentum is declining from extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positively biased with the swing level now around the OEW 1363 level. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: new uptrend high

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

59 Responses to monday update

  1. thegrowthinvestor says:

    I agree with the post, this is also in agreement with my views on the FTSE 100 on the LSE.
    http://thegrowthinvestor.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/market-update-ftse-100-well-positioned/

    Like

  2. Lee X says:

    Here’s my guess
    No QE3 announcement tomorrow just the same finger on the button statement.
    Dave Banister’s 3X short pays some $ and he humbly only mentions his profits a few times
    I get a gig @ DollyWood in Sevierville, TN wearing a hillbilly bear costume during the day and performing as a Hank Williams impersonator during the evenings..

    just my guess

    Like

  3. optiontimer says:

    My thinking is that this rally is going to sink or swim based on the actions of the ECB. This is a non-press conference fed meeting, and I suspect that should the Fed launch QE3, Benny the Bankster would want to have the opportunity to explain himself immediately. I would not expect QE3 until September at the earliest … though a Jackson Hole telegraphed punch cannot be ruled out either, I suppose.

    Like

  4. budfox9450 says:

    Tony is your plan for SBUX ??? My est. is your looking for a W4 low, in future. If
    correct, what is your Low price estimate…..Bud

    Like

    • vishal409 says:

      Haha, tony diversified?

      Like

    • CB says:

      😀 man and machine…that’s so funny Lee
      Hey Lee, JD Simo apparently became famous in AZ first …can you ask him when he’s gna perform back in PHX again when you talk to him

      Like

      • Lee X says:

        here ya go CB
        http://simotheband.bandcamp.com/album/simo
        This is his band and they are doing dates
        His bands sound is a 180 from what u saw in the clip I posted today
        Mos Def rock/blues/groovy 🙂
        He learned the Nashville sound so he wouldnt starve and hes only 27

        Like

      • CB says:

        Thanks Lee! 🙂 Yes, a pretty talented kid. Maybe will be able to see him sometime…and how about Lee and JD doing a tour together… 🙂 Hey Lee u really sound happy and so much in ur element now.. ur doing a great tour this summer ..happy to see you that way..
        Jd’s logo is really cool,too, isn’t it..kinda Hendrix/60s theme plus Jim Morrison hair…lol

        Like

      • Lee X says:

        Hey C B

        I’m in a good place as long as I keep moving 🙂

        Like

      • CB says:

        haha..what ur doing is a real vacation Lee…while some of us are doing a “staycation”..yup being stuck , basically

        Like

    • CB says:

      Nice music Lee! How is it going?
      and yes, the “castle made of sand” sell signal here.. …making sense right now…oh, let’s add Bill Gross’ mumbo jumbo too..should help also..

      Like

      • CB says:

        http://screencast.com/t/MrN3XbMm7
        a couple of fibs around 1357-58 and TL supp..unless, of course I am terribly wrong about the direction here

        Like

      • Lee X says:

        Hey C B !

        No sell signal intended…just the vibe I got reading the easin and pleasin posts.
        Just getting ready for the tide to come in and make things new again.
        I’m having a blast CB ..met and meeting a bunch of really good people all over the place.
        Check this cat out…saw and met him @ Roberts Western World in Nashville TN.
        Kids a monster player and originally from Chicago’s Lincoln Park neighborhood.
        Mr JD Simo…

        Like

      • Lee X says:

        CL @ some support here 87.70
        Ok guys I didnt mean to hijack blog with vids but I couldn’t help it…
        trade well

        Like

      • CB says:

        OMG, yes I am smitten by the kitten.. .wow!! but we haven’t heard you play yet Lee…so reserving the judgmenet who the best guitar player in Nashville is until later… 🙂 thanks Lee – youve brought us some great vibes as always

        Like

    • vishal409 says:

      Lee, how do markets react when ur on a holiday?

      Like

  5. M1 says:

    Good morning all, you know I gave up a couple of weeks ago and stopped trading for the rest of july. It has been nice watching only and I may start trading again. Could be just in time for the market reaction on the fed statement.??
    What do you think, Tony ? because the way the market has ralllied I guess Qe3 should be announced in some way ..if not, should the market would get dissapointed ?
    On the other hand, the first day of the month has been very bullish for the past years with a very few exceptions.
    GL

    Like

    • kjb0 says:

      Well, the ECB will begin buying Bonds of all the near bankrupt nations like Greece , Spain Italy and the rest. This is Europes QE1. The central banks want to devalue the dollar and raise the Euro. Over tha past year the dollar has increased over 13% against the Euro. The USD will fall and the EURO will rally for the next year along with stocks. I think this is in line with Tony’s projections for a USD low in 2013.
      Another round of QE, on top of the already 1.5 Trillion spent, will furthur devalue the dollar and rally our stock market into the next bubble that will burst.
      Looks like Tony is right on.

      Like

      • tony caldaro says:

        KJB … how do you know about the Bond buying?

        Like

      • syedsma says:

        Where does ECB gets the money to buy bond? By printing, right? Printing Euro means increasing money supply. Increasing money supply should lead to decrease in value of Euro. Why do you think Euro would strengthen when the money supply is increasing?

        Strengthening Euro and Weakening Dollar also suggests that ‘Smart money’ is flowing to Eurozone and away from US – i.e. short Dollar and long Euro. Why do you think money would flow into Eurozone while the economic conditions are deteriorating? High interest rates? May be. This might be the reason but note that under deteriorating economic conditions, the interest rates can go even higher.

        Also, why do you think European nations would take steps to increase the value of Euro while allowing the dollar to drop? Does it not go against the interests of these nations as their goods become expensive in the international markets and making these countries less competitive?

        Not picking on you but trying to learn. There are very smart and experienced traders on this blog. And Hats off to Tony …

        Like

    • tony caldaro says:

      No signal fro QE 3 yet

      Like

  6. rc1269 says:

    morning Tony. i’m waiting to see if we can put in a new intraday high with a -div on the 60-min RSI. but still feels like the mkt wants to take one more leg down before it’s ready to rally again. 1376 looks about right to me, before we head higher again.
    not much new to report in bond land – has been pretty consistent with equity mkt. Spanish bond yields are 100bp tighter in 4 days. ’nuff said.

    Like

  7. With the breakdown of resistance in the Dow Jones was 12.812ko search the 13.127k. If you break this point can get 13.335 k, if respects this point is likely to test support 12.812k
    Analysys link –
    http://www.partnerinvestimentos.blogspot.com.br/

    Like

Comments are closed.