SHORT TERM: markets gaps up on Euro rally, DOW +212
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened lower but rallied, after ECB president Draghi’s comments, gaining 2.6%. US index futures responded, after the comments, with a surge. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 353K vs 386K, and Durable goods orders were reported higher: +1.6% vs +1.3%. Also, last night the FED reported lower New homes prices: $273.9K vs $278.0K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1350 and continued to rally. The SPX had closed at 1338 yesterday. At 10:00 the SPX hit 1362, the OEW 1363 pivot, and began to pullback. Around noon the SPX hit 1351, then the market began to rally again. Nearing the close the SPX hit 1363, then pulled back to close at 1360.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.40%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude added 50 cents, Gold rose $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support for the SPX is at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum was quite overbought today. Tomorrow Q2 GDP, estimates +1.2%, at 8:30. Then around 10:00 Consumer sentiment.
Today’s gap up opening started around 7:30 with this statement: “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. And believe me, it will be enough,” Draghi told an investment conference in London. Futures surged on the comments. The market then gapped up and rallied right into the OEW 1363 pivot. This pivot has offered resistance, except for two several day pops above it, since mid-May. The market has hit an important inflection point: continue the uptrend or start a downtrend.
The market needs to clear the 1363 pivot, then the recent SPX 1375 and 1380 highs. Should the market fail here, and break through yesterday’s SPX 1344 high, a downtrend could be underway. Short term support is at SPX 1342/47 and SPX 1333/38, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought. The short term OEW charts swung positive at the open with the swing point now at SPX 1351. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bull market
the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on 
We were looking for a trading cycle low from late last week into end of July
we also knew that most were bearish and market was ripe for a squeeze
So far, so good — cycles happening nicely in the projected timing bands
Now, the question is whether the next trading cycle low is going to give us a left or right translated structure
There is always a possibility that the recent low was not the trading cycle low and we are dealing with a stretched trading cycle. The move so far puts that at a very low probability, bu it is a possibility
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right translated structure
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for those of us who don’t speak cryptic, where can we read about those right-or left-translated things,guys…sorry I am a low-high-low type person…basically a simplon.. :))
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sideways market CB
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CB, check this article on cycles:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:cycle_lines
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Thanks Tony…OK, so after a few day of being overwhelming, the market is gna be underwhelming for a change..fine… TGIF!! happy weekend all! Great timing with that +d Tony.
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“Ask and it will be given to you; seek and you will find; knock and the door will be opened to you.”
Matthew 7:7
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Igor, thanks..This is one of the most important wisdoms in life, ins’t? It’s used in psychology a lot, and that’s where I first read about it…so I am happy to find out where it actually came from…sometimes we also say “a teacher will come when the student is ready”…it’s all about eliminating our self-imposed limitations which keep us from getting what we can and should…it’s only what ( we think) we deserve that we always get…and we can be our own worst enemy sometimes…unless we can rise above our own self-imposed barriers…I really can’t tell the difference between what is and what is not possible a lot of times…so I am lucky that way I think… 😯
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just google right-translated or left-translated. they are standard terms among cycle practitioners
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thanks Piazzi..Appreciate it!
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Hey Igor, good to hear from you…and thanks!…
a very wise person on this blog once said “only idiots don’t ask questions…so I thought it wouldn’t hurt to ask..”..and it really didn’t actually….I might even learn a thing or two…thanks everyone!
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78% retracement. 1422 to 1267 (-155) to 1388 (+121). Apple miss created a lot of shorts and market is obviously making them pay in the very short term, but technically 78% retracement is not surprising. A +57 pt move in SP from Wednesday morning is surprising. Good luck timing the market, but I don’t see new highs to 1444 before we retest lows again. Q3 should have more surprises or should I say disappointments.
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Hey at least you didn’t come here 20X saying no way it was wave 3 up demanding abcxabc
If you’re in the giving mood after a week like this = worldvision.org PEACE!
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They need to slow this down IMO prolly back and fill next week. But we went to exact half way of target today. 1330-1388=58 1388+58=1446 (1444 HDivot)
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thanks HD-ivot
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Thanks HD
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thanks HD
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Hey H D
It went right to his Old pivot
nailed it again !
When its hot think like a bot
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its not a wave 3, its not 5 waves from 1267… and nobody has provided a SP 500 chart showing a valid 5 wave count. Its an unhealthy index rally. I still will not be at all shocked if the entire rally is retraced back to 1267
Lots of talk out of Europe, but talk is cheap…
That said, if I’m wrong I’m wrong, but my elliott wave views are based on textbook work and I dont see 5 impulsive waves , sorry… just dont.. so if the market rallies way past 1386 then I’ll be surprised based on the wave structure, not on anything else.
Tony had been totally hedging his calls as well for awhile as he should, it could go EITHER way, but again… dont see 5 waves, so I’ll stick with the E Wave rules and if they are wrong, they are wrong
Best
D
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1344 is still on the table, but the market is making new highs
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3 gap n go’s
NOTE TO SELF: when Tony says only 11% odds B wave go big! Get crazy big.
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50 years of data is a legitimate backtest.
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10 point swing?
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10 point- lets hope so! they have the throttle down. Relentless.
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Did GS get stopped out yet?
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“Did GS get stopped out yet?”
Goldman initially recommended investors to limit losses by closing the trade if the S&P 500 closed above 1390. But “after an initial sharp move lower, we tightened the stop, and [yesterday’s] rally pushed the index just above it,” Goldman said in a short trade update released yesterday after the closing bell.
Traders closing out a short position before today’s trading would have faced a loss of about 1.1%.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/07/03/goldman-sachs-takes-hit-on-june-short-call/
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thanks Igor
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DB, when SPX rallies to crack head Barry Bannister’s 1600 pivot you’ll still be saying “its not 5 waves from 1267” “I dont see 5 impulsive waves , sorry… just dont..”… lol..
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1386 next OLD pivot I had from 1267
This rally is not healthy because I see too many stocks folding up and tanking hard, with a smaller amount somehow holding up the indices themselves. Underneath is a lot of deterioration.
The Draghi firehose comments along with the Bernank unending QE indications has lit a match under the indices… but just watch out for those individual stock landmines, lol
Cheers
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quick note – think your right on – ref non-implusive advance – never-the-less –
the advance, off the 6/4 low was impressive, even if, it was a chop-chop affair.
do not think, your winning, when the SP runs from 1267 to 1380+, you follow?
but – that all said – is hindsight….fact is we are doing, what looks like a vertical
advance off 1329. And advance of this style coming late in the advance, time wise
can be then questioned, as to how much further can it run. 1390-1410 are good
area’s of price to watch for sell signals. Tony’s psychi is quite good, in that.
A market decline trigger would be for the Fed to stand pat. Not much Sen Shummer
can do about that – and that looks like what will happen on 8/1. What follows is
a never ending decline, or a sharp pullback, that may even retrace 78.6% of the
prior advance – so Tony’s call – makes total sense. In closing. Tony has a W2 in
green, sure that may change with the weekend report – but my thinking is that W3
lies out there in time – Aug looks like a good month for a pullback within the
confines of a W3 advance, you follow? Or, we are near term. so bullish in sentmemt
that, a total break down below 1315 would lead to a Bear trend…..so sure, your right
ref the non-implusive SP pattern – but wrong, on not using the pattern to make money…
Bud
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Tony
Looks like your dow count double flat from 1363 is the right count.
The dow and the spx are above the upper 200 hour bollinger bands, which is what I expect in a wave 3,and the hourly macd momo on the histogram is still getting stronger. Dow weekly macd has almost turned bullish. Looks like the sox going bullish was the missing ingredient. Kudos
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cheers Rob,Draghi’s comments light a fire under the EUR … risk on
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Cheers Tony.
Biggest difference in this 5 minute bull market is that we’re still in wave 1(subwave 5 possibly topped out at that recent spike) and we’re all ready at higher highs. Still 4 more waves to go.
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Rob that is some interesting stuff regarding boll bands… Is that anywhere in print (boll on boll bands?) or from your years of experience?
I did short some SDS today and Q’s early today… wonder if I get it back…
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Years of experience and just trying to think like a bot. 20, 50 and 200 ma’s are the most frequently used ma’s. That’s why I use them and their bb’s.
Subwave 5 of 1 is still extending. Wave 2 correction probably will occur after the fomc meeting. Wave 2 corrections usually drop to the lower 50 5 minute bb. Sometimes pop it open a little. If one occured right now, that would be 1370 on the spx.
Don’t think you’ll get it back.
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thanks Rob
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Well Tony C – all your work is holding up! I cannot wait for your weekend posting.
I beleive awhile back you noted we wanted to see an up move above some level to make your bullish count into 1490+ by year end and this pattern hold… Cannot wait for your usual detailed infor and data compare against the world indices, etc.
Thank you for all you do. Now we need some risk on metal/material partcipation and the banks to come on I feel.
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cheers!
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Looks like the market is headed for a 7/31, end of month, Tuesday and pre-Fed short term high. Can you get a better trifect top than those three?? well, that’s how i’ll be playing it at least. cheers!
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RCExpecting an FOMC disappointment too
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I’m expecting Fed disappointment as well. So either the 3 of us are very smart or the majority are expecting the Fed to do nothing. Today’s rally certainly complicates the charts.
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Pot of gold is not at the top of the rainbow.
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Tony, that means a pullback but not the end of the rally right?
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more than likely
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Tony or rc (or anyone else)
From a technical view…
Looking back at all of this over lapping up/down – it appears to me like one big bear flag starting back in mid June.
Does anyone else see this?
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PB, With the Tech cycle bottoming it looks like a nice base.Now if the EURO continues to rally it will be.
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pivot time + Barry Gibb
Fugghgetaboutit!
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haa..Pivots and Barry Gibb (doing country music now, really 😀 ?? …..Tony you’ve got too many pivots here..
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1384 would look pretty objective here
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yes the right song isn’t it… maybe they’ll try to bring back the other brothers by holography in a concert one day like they did with Tupac…would be fun
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CB,
I too am thinking 1384 or so may be the last hurrah as well.
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thanks Ryan. Some indicators are pretty weak, like the AD line at the recent high…so it’s prbly a good idea to be a minimalist…
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GDP grows at 1.5%…beats concensus of 1.2% !
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Consensus was 1.5% last week 😉
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Probably higher from here…
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AAPL buying AUTH for $8!
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Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!
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Yes,
Held this thing for the better part of a year and suffered a bit with it but lately its perked up! Not enough shares to make a difference but nice to see regardless.
Can never figure these buyouts…they buy for $8 and its bidding $8.17 ?? Shorts covering ??
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market feels offer is too low
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MMM… Anyone buying for over $8 is likely to lose though no ? Offer is $8. Now bids $8.20…
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It usually means a higher bid … but I usually sell on the pop
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