thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening – afternoon  rebound, DOW -25

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.8%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported as expected at +1.9%, and weekly Jobless claims ticked lower: 386K vs 387K. The market gapped down at the open, for the second time this week, to SPX 1325 and slid to 1320 in the opening minutes. The SPX had closed at 1332 yesterday. After a rally attempt back to the opening level failed at SPX 1324 by 10:00, the market declined to 1315 by 10:30. Another rally attempt pushed the SPX back to 1320 by 11:30, but the market rolled over again. At 1:00 the FED released the following: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120628a.htm. Then at 2:00 the FED released tomorrow’s testimony today: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/martin20120628a.htm. At 2:30 the market hit its low for the day at SPX 1313, and then rallied sharply into the close. Just before the close the SPX hit 1330, and then ended the day at 1329.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude lost $1.75, Gold slid $17, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from quite overbought yesterday, to slightly oversold today, and then rose to nearly overbought at the close. Tomorrow, Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Then the Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment near 10:00.

Wild day! The market gapped down at the open, bounced around a bit while heading lower, then hit the OEW 1313 pivot. Just when the market looked like it was going to break down it rallied. The DOW took out its monday low during today’s decline, but the SPX obviously did not. The short term OEW charts opened negative, then ended the day with a positive bias. Looks like the B wave rally from monday’s SPX 1309 low is still underway. Overall, the market remains between two OEW pivots: 1313 and 1363. Until one or the other is exceeded the medium term trend remains neutral.

Short term support again at SPX 1324/27 and the 1313 pivot, with resistance again at SPX 1334/38 and 1342/47. Short term momentum is nearing overbought. The short term OEW charts are positive with the swing point around SPX 1327. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: neutral – trading range between pivots

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

119 Responses to thursday update

  1. OK totally didnt predict this about face to 1358…. thats why MR Market rules all.

    will be watchin the 1375-77 pivot I had out last week as a possible high, but this is a strong rally

    I can maybe count ABC -A; ABC – B ,and this could be C of ABC- C—-

    but we will see

    Good luck all
    D

    Like

  2. rc1269 says:

    Lee, what on earth did you do to CL??

    biggest rally in 3 years…? shizzow

    Like

    • Lee X says:

      Hey R C !
      I was due .. Who has 2 thumbs and scratched the month trading CL..that’s right ur talking to him. That means if I find a nickle on the ground today I out performed my whole month in one pick up or the guy selling churros out of a cart lapped me like a mad man. It’s awesome to be a professional trader man I tell ya 🙂

      Like

      • rc1269 says:

        good for you buddy, glad to hear it. well, not glad to hear about the donut heading into today, but hey – the month isn’t over yet and now you can be “up for the month.” hah cheers. eat some of that fish you caught on your trip. with a corona.

        Like

  3. Lee X says:

    CL
    Clocks cleaned at the pit close
    If I was a tooter ud be getting an earful 🙂
    Everybody have a great weekend !
    Iran good luck with ur oil sales

    Like

  4. Rob Naardin says:

    Hi Tony

    Wow, wasn’t expecting 1362 to be taken out in 1 day. SPX 5 min chart says we will

    Like

  5. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony for letting me work my sugar water buzz off here daily.
    I’m certainly not smarter than a computer or even a see and say (the cow goes mooooo)
    I’m a silly guy outsider in a silly insiders game.
    Talk to yas at the close or in 1 minute Im not sure which 😛

    Like

    • CB says:

      if the game works, it’s not silly 😛 …modified Murphy’s law

      Lee, after all the “bird man” talk can you play some nice clean hummingbird music for us to restore the high moral code here again?…gracias 🙂

      Tony, sorry about the digressions – will try to stay in my cave for a while while patiently awaiting some trading executions 🙂

      Like

  6. Lee X says:

    Hey guys what was GS buy stop on the sell reco they gave last week ?
    thx

    Like

    • CB says:

      Hi Lee, think it was 1390 (?)

      Like

    • tony caldaro says:

      1363 … but not sure?

      Like

    • Lee X says:

      Ok thanks for nuttin LOL
      I guess Ill ask on twitter but then I’m running the risk of 100+ characters of how they got long because of it and how much fun trading is…Thanks Thanks a lot

      Like

      • tony caldaro says:

        Heres the note from Goldman:

        We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.

        Like

      • Lee X says:

        Thanks Tony !

        Like

      • CB says:

        ok, so my reward for the nutting ( correct & nevertheless worthless answer) will be nutting today…LOL…OK, I feell so good about this that I’ll just throw in a free GS joke for yas to enjoy …a guy approaches LLoyd you-know-who…in a gym and asks him: what are you training for?….L: Life, mf, life… – Tony pls remove mf if you need to, although it’s an integral part of the joke, imho… 😯

        Like

      • Lee X says:

        Hey C B

        Lloyd would be the “bird man ” in the big house :))

        Like

    • Lee X says:

      Thanks Tony !

      C B

      Ur money honey !

      Like

      • CB says:

        only today Lee….just by accident..happens once in a while…but yes I am sweet :))

        Like

      • CB says:

        LOL!! Lee you get the hardest working/funniest guy award (again) today…and think again: the big house? how about the “bird woman” title for him -need to ask Blago- yes, we need a separate blog for this stuff… :))

        Like

  7. M1 says:

    Another risky trade, I just went 150% short….stop 100 points (dow) above….
    GL

    Like

  8. Brent Calis says:

    Hmmmm. Is this just another head fake? It’s amazing how the news from Europe crushed the bad news from the Court’s decision. It’s also looking past the disappointing data this morning.

    Like

    • Lee X says:

      Hey Brent

      It’s also the end of the quarter and a friday .
      And guys got smoked this week ..both sides IMO
      On Stocktwits and Twitter folks are blocking people left and right cause of things they said were 100%… cats sleeping with dogs. U guys know the drill

      Like

      • Brent Calis says:

        Yup. Totally true. I need to see the trading statements of some of these people to even know if they’re telling the truth. It’s a lot easier to say after the fact that you were right.

        Will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months. It looks like the market could have another explosive rally before reality finally settles in. If I had just remained patient with my shorts when this correction started…but then again, I can’t torture myself like that.

        Like

      • Lee X says:

        U can’t torture urself about things in the past I agree Brent
        U just have to prepare for the torture of the future 🙂
        As far as guys posting all these winning trades on every move on ST and Twitter
        They’re just paper trading while trying to get a Prop desks attention and u can see how that has worked out for them ..They’re still there 24/7

        Like

  9. kjb0 says:

    Hi Tony,
    Do you still think we are not in Intermediate wave 3 on the daily, with int. wave 2 finishing at 1266 ? What would change your mind?

    Like

Comments are closed.