thursday update

SHORT TERM: market heads lower then bounces, DOW -26

Overnight the Asian markets were -0.8%. European markets opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, then started to weakend after a few economic reports. At 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: 133K vs 119K, but lower than expected. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported in line with expectations but lower: +1.9% vs +2.2%, and weekly Jobless claims were higher: 383K vs 370K. The market opened one point higher than yesterday’s close at SPX 1314. As it started to pullback the Chicago PMI was reported lower at 9:45: 52.7 vs 56.2. The pullback continued until about 11:30, when Europe closes, and the SPX hit 1299. Then quite oversold it started to rally. By 1:00 it hit SPX 1315, pulled back to 1308 by 2:00, and then moved higher again. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1320, and then dropped to 1310 at the close. Wild day!

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.40%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude lost $1.30, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX drops to the 1303 and 1291 pivots, with resistance now at the 1313 and 1363 pivots. Short term momentum bounced to neutral during the rally. Tomorrow, the monthly Payrolls report at 8:30, along with Personal income/spending and PCE prices. Then at 10:00 ISM manufacturing and Construction spending. Also monthly Auto sales will be reported tomorrow.

The market opened a bit higher today then quickly sold off to SPX 1299. This level is two points above last wednesday’s 1297 low, and seven points above the previous friday’s 1292 low. The market appears to be trying to form a base in the SPX 1290’s. After the close yesterday we updated the SPX hourly chart to what we feel is the current count of Major wave 4. Remember Int. A took the form of a failed flat from SPX 1422-1359. Then we had the Int. B was rally to SPX 1415. Now Int. C, although twice as long as Int. A, appears to be trying to form a similar type of flat bottom. The OEW 1291 pivot appears to be important support.

Short term support is at the OEW 1303 and 1291 pivots, with overhead resistance at the 1313 pivot and SPX 1324/28. Short term momentum ended at neutral. The short term OEW charts remain with a negative bias with SPX 1318 now the swing point. Best to your first of the month trading tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend trying to bottom

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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166 Responses to thursday update

  1. Lee X says:

    Hey R C

    No WTF move……….. I was 100% incorrect
    slow mo algo disco boogie

    1 st day since Nov 30 th 2011 that we traded over 3 million es minis I think
    congrats CME


  2. mike7x says:

    Me confused. I posted this (by mistake) on the Wednesday Update at 11:53 am…
    “PREDICTION: Today Tony’s site breaks 150 comments. May make a record high. That’s it!”
    Looks like we made it…


  3. rc1269 says:

    does anybody else think CAT looks like it has completed a downtrend? counts and fibs all look pretty good at 86 and change. same with FCX. both of those tend to lead i think


  4. Lee X says:

    Haven’t had more than a 6 handle move up all day session
    .382 back 1382.50 ESM


  5. Tony et. al— how about this idea?

    Wave 1 of primary 3 1074-1422- 6 months
    Wave 2 of Primary 3 1422- 1248 (50% or 61% is 1207)- 3 months through June

    Then wave 3 of 3 starts sometime this summer…?? Post July 4th?

    Could well fit


  6. klogsdonjr says:

    i have been watching this blog since summer lows of last year. Almost jumped back in with the kids college fund a few times. You all have been spot on all the way. I’m wondering if today would be the day to get in with about half the fund, then ride it out till early next year and exit. From what I glean it could be about a 10-15% increase. At that point I would be out for good and the kids would all taken care of – I’d love to hear any comments on this? – KL


  7. rc1269 says:

    AAPL at 561 looks like a great IHS buy


  8. rc1269 says:

    Tony, we just hit -10% from the high in spx. anybody care…? doesn’t look like it. folks are waiting for something. not sure what it is though


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