tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up rally, DOW +126

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.7%. European markets gained 1.1%. US index futures continued their holiday rally, and the market gapped up to SPX 1326 at the open. The SPX had closed at 1318 on friday. Prior to the open Case-Shiller reported a slight dip in housing prices: $134.10K vs $134.14K. Then at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported lower: 64.9 vs 69.2. The rally continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1335, and hit quite overbought. After that the market started to pullback, and declined further after Europe closed. At 1:30 the SPX hit 1323 and then started to rally. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1333 and closed at 1332.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.20%. Bonds lost 2 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold dropped $16, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1313 and 1303 pivots, with resistance at the 1363 and 1372 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite overbought this morning then pulled back near neutral. Tomorrow, Pending home sales at 10:00.

The market gapped up at the open for the first time since May 10th today. The rally carried the SPX to 1335, its highest level since the 1292 low. This was followed by an 11 point pullback to 1323. Which was in the middle of the range of the recent 10 and 13 point pullbacks, and the previous SPX 1324/1328 resistance area. The advance from the SPX 1297 low, which is when the DOW bottomed, looks a bit choppy so far. Currently: 1324-1311-1324-1314-1335-1323. This pattern is fine as long as SPX 1335 is exceeded soon. Any pullback to the OEW 1313 pivot range (+/- 7 pts.), and it will start to look corrective.

Short term support is at SPX 1324/28 and the 1313 pivot, with resistance at SPX 1342/47 and the 1363 pivot. Short term momentum looks positive as the pullbacks have all ended around neutral. The short term OEW charts are positive after the market rallied through the 1323 level on friday. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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112 Responses to tuesday update

  1. Lee X says:

    Nice job Mario !

    Like

  2. Lee X says:

    Yo V !
    Im just having a good ole time !
    Hey C B
    Ur doing fine 🙂

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    • Lee X says:

      The ESM S2 Pivot @ 1317 vs the 1313 SPX pivot
      all day
      S3 97.20 CLN

      Like

    • CB says:

      Hey Lee, great ur back from ur man-cave… 🙂 I’ve just realized they were messing with me ..and I get the whole deal.. they want me to hold the stuff overnight to get paid…fine…
      Interactive Brokers has a special button called “pause execution” for discretionary people like me, who get “aha” moments…

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  3. M1 says:

    Tony, is the count being adjusting today or it needs a bit more weakness to be adjusted and be more confident on the new count ?
    Thx

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  4. vishal409 says:

    Jim O’Neill

    “In the context of the European crisis for example, I’m fond of saying that China creates an economy equivalent to another Greece every 11 and a half weeks. So you could wave Greece off the map and in 11 and a half weeks, China creates another one.”
    “Last year the combined dollar GDP of the four [original – minus South Africa] BRICs increased by 2.1 trillion dollars; so the equivalent of creating another Italy every 15 months, so it has been and remains the most important world economic story in our generation”.

    Like

    • CB says:

      Hi Vishal. Yes u guys are the growth engine – and pls keep it that way 🙂
      O’neill was like: Greece? Oh no not a problem..they owe too much money to the banksters..cannot leave now…/when he was on Bloomberg the other day/

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      • CB says:

        think he almost wanted to yawn…but folks at GS don’t yawn, do they? – too busy making $$

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      • vishal409 says:

        Hey CB

        Grass is always green on the other side, BRICS have their unique sets of problems, say for ex-India yes we have 7% growth but with over 10%+ Inflation- no use!.I think US will see steady growth over the yrs to come and will remain the epicentre of the economic landscape

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      • vishal409 says:

        CB, what they say & what they do, is a different story! Any new occupancy in Lee’s “New Avengers Club”?????

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      • CB says:

        yes, inflation sucks…here too..
        I was just going to ask : Lee, HD where are you guys…don’t let my machine-gun mouth run too much longer.. please 🙂

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      • vishal409 says:

        CL must have kept the big man busy!

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  5. budfox9450 says:

    1:51 pm edt – looking at Spain’s Forex chart. It appears to be into a W3 of 3 down. With the
    high last Feb, a minor (4) up of W3 down, that could take the Spain index to near 8,000,
    before collapsing into a final wave down to finish W3. True, my EW is pure guess work,
    but you get the idea we are coming into a world of pain, if not holding some protection like
    (SH)…..http://www.forexpros.com/indices/spain-35-futures-streaming-chart

    Bud

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  6. ajchich says:

    Tony, long time reader first time poster. I really appreciate all u do. If we hold 1313 pivot is your count still applicable? Or because we entered the pivot zone is the count no Bueno?
    Thx

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  7. CB says:

    went long against the LOD..what u guys thinking…?

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