monday update

SHORT TERM: end of month pullback, DOW -15

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher +0.7%. Europe, however, opened higher and closed mostly lower -0.8%. US index futures were relatively quiet overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +0.4% vs +0.2% , Personal spending lower +0.3% vs +0.8%, and PCE prices were higher +0.2% vs +0.1%. The market opened one point lower than friday’s SPX 1403 close, and started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 56.2 vs 62.2. The pullback continued until 10:00 when the SPX hit 1395. After a rally attempt failed at SPX 1399 around 10:30 the market went into a narrow trading range. At 2:30 the market slipped lower to SPX 1394, then bounced to close at 1398.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.70%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $4.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold after friday’s extremely overbought level. Tomorrow, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00, then monthly Auto sales later in the day.

The market opened slightly lower today. Then had the largest pullback since tuesday’s rally began at SPX 1359. This helps confirm the five waves up to SPX 1407. Now the question arises; “Did the five waves up end a small impulse wave, or did it conclude the expanding diagonal triangle from SPX 1357?”. Right now the technical situation is just too complex to arrive at a definitive answer.

We have a potential Intermediate wave iv low at SPX 1359, without a new high yet to confirm. An expanding triangle from SPX 1357, without a sufficient break from the 1407 high to confirm. Then, at the same time, the DOW/NAZ have both been in confirmed downtrends versus the still uptrending, (or unconfirmed downtrending), SPX/NDX. Plus, market leader AAPL appears to be in its post earnings profit taking period. Overall we need more market data, and will let the market decide its next short term direction.

Short term support remains at the OEW 1386 and 1372 pivots. Short term resistance is at SPX 1407, 1414, and 1419. Short term momentum hit oversold today, then bounced back to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain with a positive bias from SPX 1380 with the swing point around the upper range of the 1386 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: DOW/NAZ confirmed downtrends, SPX/NDX have not

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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77 Responses to monday update

  1. Igor says:

    Peter Brandt: “This latest week’s release confirmed a significant development — the small speculator has taken the long sponsorship away from the commercials in S&P futures. With the commercial joining the large specs in now having net short positions, this leaves the small spec as the only net long holder of S&P futures contracts. So, the gun fight at the “CME coral” is between the small spec on one end of the street and the large spec along with the commercial at the end of the street. In my view, this is like a guy with a knive facing off against a 50-cal. machine gun and an F-22.”
    Must read:
    http://peterlbrandt.com/small-spec-becomes-the-big-long-in-sp-futures-oct-2007-revisited/

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  2. M1 says:

    dow highs at 3 points below my stop loss
    it looks this was the fifth wave from 12845

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    • M1 says:

      last try…2 points below my stop loss…if this is the fifth wave we may see a reversal soon and my short positions may be save for a while..we shall see

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      • M1 says:

        stopped out at 13315..100 points loss
        add 70 points for the last two long tries…total 170 points loss … in april….I wished I have stayed long … this was always a new uptrend
        this still looks like the fifth wave from 12845…. some fib projections…first wave = 205
        wave 5 = wave 1…. 13175 + 205 = 13380 +/- 20 points

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      • M1 says:

        Yes, dec 11 – mar 12 was a 900 points gain… but three losses 35+35+100 in a row ?

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    • Not to worry M1.. From my point of view Dow is setting up for a good old fashioned triple top with a target of 12,200 at the very least….Patience!

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  3. STock pick… get long the metals…. TAS my favorite, long today at 1.91… should get back to upper 2’s over 90 days or less

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  4. Last nights post from me, i have to laugh:

    “Also, if all they can do is drop 5 points today… I’d say at best for the bears your getting a wave 2 pullback here of major 5…. and at worst Bears are going to get their heads ripped off shortly.”

    I just saw the head of a bear on the side of the road. Welcome to Major 5… no C wave folks… the 38% retrace of Small caps at same time as 23% retrace of Big caps was your first clue at the 1358 double bottom…

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  5. Lee says:

    Lee says :
    Jan 23 rd 1995 @ 7:58 am

    “I think the internet is just a fad ”

    You guys have a great day !

    bye C B 🙂

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    • Lee says:

      see yas at the close

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    • CB says:

      haha…funny Lee 🙂 hey u’re the living proof that what makes great traders is their ability to change their mind quickly…so I am sure if you look hard enough you’ll find another entry saying.. “Oh my gosh, the internet …I am loving it…and dang it I hope it won’t fade away anytime soon…” enjoy ur day Lee and everyone!

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  6. How is my prediction of 1st of month rally yesterday evening coming along?

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  7. M1 says:

    I was aware this was going to be an agressive trade going short the first day of the month…usually this date is up… have a 100 dow points stop loss….almost there.
    It is more clear now that major wave 4 was already in place as I was suggesting two weeks ago.
    GL

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    • alexhartley1 says:

      Hi Tony, Do you concur? This is beginning to look more like an impulsive move off recent lows. What makes it an intermediate 4 as opposed to a Major 4 and are we now seeing an end to the downtrend with this decent size move off recent lows around 1357/60 area. Thank you

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      • tony caldaro says:

        Hi Alex, Yes it is looking implusive, 5 up from 1359, pullback, now higher.And the DOW may even confirm the uptrend. Major 4 or Int. iv we’ll know soon enough

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      • glacialspeed says:

        Tony, let me try and put a little finer point on this to make sure I understand. We’ll know soon enough once we see if the DOW crosses 13,520. Correct?

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    • M1 says:

      M1 says:

      April 12, 2012 at 10:14 am

      As I mentioned yesterday, it looked to me major wave 4 could be over. Well, I still think so. So we may be in rally mode once again and Major wave 5 may be unfolding now.
      GL

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  8. As projected… we continue higher, we are already in Major 5 up from 1358 SP 500 lows. By the time its confirmed, you’ll miss at least 60 points

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  9. Lee says:

    morn

    get ready for a larger range today in SPX

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