monday update

SHORT TERM: end of month pullback, DOW -15

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher +0.7%. Europe, however, opened higher and closed mostly lower -0.8%. US index futures were relatively quiet overnight. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +0.4% vs +0.2% , Personal spending lower +0.3% vs +0.8%, and PCE prices were higher +0.2% vs +0.1%. The market opened one point lower than friday’s SPX 1403 close, and started to pullback. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 56.2 vs 62.2. The pullback continued until 10:00 when the SPX hit 1395. After a rally attempt failed at SPX 1399 around 10:30 the market went into a narrow trading range. At 2:30 the market slipped lower to SPX 1394, then bounced to close at 1398.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.70%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 10 cents, Gold added $4.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold after friday’s extremely overbought level. Tomorrow, ISM manufacturing and Construction spending at 10:00, then monthly Auto sales later in the day.

The market opened slightly lower today. Then had the largest pullback since tuesday’s rally began at SPX 1359. This helps confirm the five waves up to SPX 1407. Now the question arises; “Did the five waves up end a small impulse wave, or did it conclude the expanding diagonal triangle from SPX 1357?”. Right now the technical situation is just too complex to arrive at a definitive answer.

We have a potential Intermediate wave iv low at SPX 1359, without a new high yet to confirm. An expanding triangle from SPX 1357, without a sufficient break from the 1407 high to confirm. Then, at the same time, the DOW/NAZ have both been in confirmed downtrends versus the still uptrending, (or unconfirmed downtrending), SPX/NDX. Plus, market leader AAPL appears to be in its post earnings profit taking period. Overall we need more market data, and will let the market decide its next short term direction.

Short term support remains at the OEW 1386 and 1372 pivots. Short term resistance is at SPX 1407, 1414, and 1419. Short term momentum hit oversold today, then bounced back to neutral. The short term OEW charts remain with a positive bias from SPX 1380 with the swing point around the upper range of the 1386 pivot. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: DOW/NAZ confirmed downtrends, SPX/NDX have not

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

77 Responses to monday update

  1. Pingback: Homepage

  2. Who took the +1% gain on SPY today ? Shear Genius!

    Like

    • CB says:

      haa…nice read, Lee!…it sounds like a not-so-subtle attempt at fund-raising on Wall Street…’go where the money is and scare the heck out of people’…

      Like

  3. H D says:

    1407 back to the scene of the crime. I have nothing to add. Full scalporama. The waves make no sense to me here. 1370 and 1422 both points of interest though. A new bar opened that has 96 ounce ptichers. Comes in a little mini keg with ice. $25 at HH -can’t wait.
    Anticipate- Monitor- Drink! My preferred method of adjusting.

    Like

  4. cwallace90 says:

    for what it’s worth, the DOW today hit and slightly exceeded the 88.6% retracement (13,321) of the 2007-2009 decline. 88.6% is a significant retracement level because it is the square root of the 78.6% retracement.

    Like

  5. Lee says:

    See what happens with this neg div on Tonys 60 min works out

    Like

    • Lee says:

      Dont worry even I didnt understand my last post.
      Neg Div on Tonys 60 min is all I was saying.

      Like

  6. kvilia says:

    I was just looking at the SPX and RUT charts, and they are nothing alike! What’s interesting is that RUT is very closely mimicking last years performance. I would like to see if the right shoulder is indeed being established again.

    Like

  7. redadair says:

    Oil looks like a bottom could be in for minute ii.

    Patrick

    Like

  8. Wow. There’s a lot of horn tooting going on today.

    Here’s a quote I found.
    ” It is far more impressive when others discover your good qualities without your help.” ~Author Unknown

    Like

Comments are closed.