SHORT TERM: most markets closed worldwide, YM (DOW) -120
Overnight mostly only Asian markets were open: -0.1%. European markets were closed. US index futures traded throughout the night and ES (SPX) was +3.0 prior to the Payrolls report. At 8:30 monthly Payrolls were reported lower: 120K vs 227K, well below the 230K estimate. The Unemployment rate, however, dropped: 8.2% vs 8.3%. Stock index futures sold off quite dramatically after the report, and Bonds rallied. At the 9:15 EST AM close ES (SPX) was -15.25, NQ (NDX) was -28.50, and ZN (Bonds) were +27 ticks. In Forex trading Gold gained $11.00, and the USD declined.
Last night the FED reported an uptick in the M1-multipler, but another downtick in the Monetary base. It appears our Primary wave III, in the monetary base, peaked in February at $2.753 tln. The monetary base is currently at $2.659 tln and declining. Economic reports that come in later in the day will be included in the weekend report.
Should the market open monday at current futures levels, the SPX will be challenging the lower end of the OEW 1386 support pivot, and possibly entering the 1372 pivot range. This would create the largest pullback since December’s 65 SPX point decline. With the recent diagonal triangle pattern in place for Intermediate wave v, a new downtrend is likely underway. Will cover this and what it suggests in the weekly update. Enjoy the holiday!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely topped at SPX 1422
LONG TERM: bull market