thursday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -15

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower: -0.7%. European market opened higher and were +0.2%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported slightly lower: 357K vs 359K. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1394, dipped to 1393, and then started to rally. Around 11:30 the SPX had closed the gap and rallied to 1402. With short term momentum now back to neutral the market started to pullback. Around 2:00 the pullback ended at SPX 1395, and then market then drifted up into a 1398 close. At the close the FED released the following:, and this:

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude rose $1.65, Gold rallied $12.00, and the USD was higher too. Support for the SPX remains at the OEW 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum moved between neutral and slightly oversold today. Tomorrow, with the US markets closed, the monthly Payroll report at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3:00.

The market gapped down at the open today, took out yesterday’s low by 1 point, and then tried to rally. Thus far, the SPX has declined from 1422 to 1405, bounced to 1413, declined to 1393, and now has bounced to 1402. This 29 point decline from SPX 1422 can be considered the first wave down of a new downtrend, or the third consecutive major pullback in as many weeks. Since major pullbacks, during this uptrend, have only occurred about once a month. We are expecting this one to be the beginning of a new downtrend. Market characteristics have changed.

Short term support remains at the OEW 1386, (the range was tested today), and 1372 pivots. Overhead support resistance is at SPX 1414, 1419 and 1422. Short term momentum has not hit extremely oversold despite the decline. It bounced around between oversold and neutral today. The short term OEW charts remain on a negative bias with the swing point around 1404. Enjoy the holiday!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have ended at SPX 1422

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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9 Responses to thursday update

  1. hi Tony,

    I have discovered your blog about 10 months ago and noticed you like to drop a few lines which at first sight aren’t related to stock market analysis
    I refer to “Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice. Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!”

    You aren’t keeping your analysis to yourself so clearly we know which side you have chosen and all the better for us followers …

    I am curious, is this poetry or a message? Is this the ultimate skill one needs to be succesful at analysis stock market?
    In any way, my google research 🙂 led me to those 17 points
    where I think it explains what you mean for the first sentence.

    Have a nice holiday


    • tony caldaro says:

      Hi Sun, It’s an original message.It summarizes what the Sages have been trying to tell us for millenium.The purpose of life, on this planet, at this time.There is no need to search for the Holy Grail.We are already eternal, and always have been.There is no need to seek riches.Our wealth is already within us.If one treats all others like one treats oneself, the lesson has been learned.Good luck on your journey.Search the following sanskrit word. It summarizes it quite well.Namaste


  2. vorfahrt says:

    Question for silver: apparantly, it retraced more than 38% of the big 3 move from $9 – $50. Would a 4 not retrace more than 38%? – For gold, everything is still fine and above the 38% retracement. – Thanks, Joe


  3. My mutual fund portfolio and opinion on the stock market direction update for Thursday 4/5/12:


  4. mike7x says:

    Thanks for the update Tony! Happy holiday also!! On another front…”Oh shuddup Mr. Gartman!”
    Gold’s Decade-Long Bull Run Is Dead, Gartman Says…


  5. Lee says:

    Thanks Tony
    Have a great holiday also!
    All the bad weather to the south it looks like. I’ll see ya at the catfish hole !


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