tuesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -44

Overnight the Asian markets were all higher, gaining 1.8%. Europeans markets were mostly lower, losing 0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported a decline of 0.8% in housing prices: 135.46 vs 136.61. The market opened one point higher from yesterday’s close at SPX 1417. Within the first few minutes the SPX dipped to 1417, then bounced to 1419 by 10:00. At ten Consumer confidence was reported lower: 70.2 vs 70.8. The market then started to pullback. Just after ten FED director Kamin’s congressional testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/kamin20120327a.htm. The pullback continued until around 11:00 when the SPX hit 1416. It then went into a trading range between SPX 1415 and 1418 until the last hout of trading. In the last hour the SPX declined to 1412, and then closed at 1413. Before the close FED governor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20120327a.htm

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold slid $11.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum declined to below neutral from extremely overbought. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30.

The market opened slightly higher, put in a new uptrend high at SPX 1419, then went into consolidation mode until near the close. The market has had a fairly good run from friday’s SPX 1387 to today’s high. A minor pullback, 8-20 points, from the high would not be surprising. Gold is experiencing that type of pullback today. Gold has also had a fairly good run from $1628 on thursday to $1697 today. The short term OEW charts, which swung positive around SPX 1390, suggest a major pullback, 20+ points, is at least one week away. Short term support is now around SPX 1408, with little overhead resistance until the market hits the 1440 pivot range, SPX 1433-1447. The short term count remains the same. Again, sorry for the delay. Best to your trading.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1419

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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78 Responses to tuesday update

  1. robslob64 says:

    Hi Tony,
    A long way off to consider the impossible but at what point in the SP do we reconsider the unthinkable…bear market?
    Thanks,
    Rob

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  2. rc1269 says:

    Gold just broke support with a vengeance

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  3. H D says:

    20 point PB, another perfect call Tony! MA 89 😯

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  4. S&P near 5 down intraday

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  5. DR CL says:

    U guys trade well
    See yas after the SPX close.
    It’s my new thang
    saves room for good questions and observations by other folks here
    GL

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  6. piazzi says:

    It is quite normal (whatever that might mean :-)) for something that has had a vertical spike to enter a choppy and volatile correction

    That is why I said a while back those who wanted to trade gold might be in for volatility — basically, too may bugs to be sprayed and that takes some chops 😉

    Gold seems to have just had a trading cycle low this recent low, and, if so, nect trading cycle low will be theoretically due April 19-May 13

    so, if I wanted to trade, the recent low would be a guide for stop and I would look for overbought conditions towards mid-April to tighten or lighten

    This recent low came on the early side of an intermediate cycle. Technically it can be an intermediate cycle low, but it came early and is a bit suspect

    So, if I wanted to swing, I would go with a trading mentality, and see how it would unfold and if I could roll my short-term trade into a mid-term swing

    there is a lot of talk about parabola in gold, or silver, and the last spike was vertical in both but it is a matter of time frame and perspective

    change time frame or change chart from linear to logarithmic and things look differently

    so, traders, as I had mentioned, have been, and may be in for some chops — ideally, we want all bugs sprayed so that we can attract new bugs to much higher highs

    as for long-term holders, who are sensible and allocate a weighting and do not lever themselves up casino style, one may ask a simple question: can any paper representation of money be regarded as a store of value anywhere in the world at this juncture?

    and, with that, I rest my case

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  7. H D says:

    Tony, a little more oversold than I’d expect in a 3rd. R u considering a terminal pattern ending this wave? Thx

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  8. stemphos says:

    Tony,
    Thanks for keeping me straight.

    Minor wave 3, minute wave ii from 1419 to 1406 currently

    Minute ii retracements:
    0.382 = 1407
    0.500 = 1403
    0.618 = 1399

    Looks good to me

    Aaron

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  9. DR CL says:

    ole 1407 SPX again Reduced margins= more fun

    crude oil inventories rose 7.1M barrels, distillate fell 711K, gasoline fell 3.54M
    They just love that gasoline
    Needs a Strait of Hormuz update to get it going

    never ever chase

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