tuesday update

SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -44

Overnight the Asian markets were all higher, gaining 1.8%. Europeans markets were mostly lower, losing 0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported a decline of 0.8% in housing prices: 135.46 vs 136.61. The market opened one point higher from yesterday’s close at SPX 1417. Within the first few minutes the SPX dipped to 1417, then bounced to 1419 by 10:00. At ten Consumer confidence was reported lower: 70.2 vs 70.8. The market then started to pullback. Just after ten FED director Kamin’s congressional testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/kamin20120327a.htm. The pullback continued until around 11:00 when the SPX hit 1416. It then went into a trading range between SPX 1415 and 1418 until the last hout of trading. In the last hour the SPX declined to 1412, and then closed at 1413. Before the close FED governor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20120327a.htm

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold slid $11.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum declined to below neutral from extremely overbought. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30.

The market opened slightly higher, put in a new uptrend high at SPX 1419, then went into consolidation mode until near the close. The market has had a fairly good run from friday’s SPX 1387 to today’s high. A minor pullback, 8-20 points, from the high would not be surprising. Gold is experiencing that type of pullback today. Gold has also had a fairly good run from $1628 on thursday to $1697 today. The short term OEW charts, which swung positive around SPX 1390, suggest a major pullback, 20+ points, is at least one week away. Short term support is now around SPX 1408, with little overhead resistance until the market hits the 1440 pivot range, SPX 1433-1447. The short term count remains the same. Again, sorry for the delay. Best to your trading.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1419

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
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78 Responses to tuesday update

  1. DR CL says:

    almost back to 1407 SPX.
    ES back to .50% pit and the S2 @ 1400.50

    new low buy stops got hit then whoosh robot Mc Luvin till the close..

    pivots and fibs

    CL

    Did u guys buy it ?

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  2. H D says:

    CB- if that’s not an impulse from 670ZW then I don’t know what is! :mrgreen:

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    • CB says:

      thanks Hd. Hey I like the educational part of it, I just don’t like feeling this impulse in my account, which I am . Imho, they’re going nuts ahead of this ag report of Friday. It’ll be just fine, right? 😉 http://screencast.com/t/fqdb69Fsu

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    • CB says:

      Lee, it feels pretty real no matter how false it is …I have a mixture of wheat, corn, beans and sugar in my ETF -that’s all I can do ..can’t do futures -and thank goodness I can’t – i would get hurt in them really fast. Tough love..yes..nobody ever talks about that…lol

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      • CB says:

        OK, “no nutting” – get it.. thanks Lee! 🙂
        Thanks Tony!

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      • H D says:

        CB- wasn’t aware of ur position. No offense meant. I’ve been talking the short side of grains for a while. I think that is a triangle and we are out of waves. Beans imo follows SPX. If that helps. CL still looking for $67 I dunno? Once POTUS fixes that too 😆

        Is it just me or is the DOW looking bearish?

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      • DR CL says:

        Hey C B

        I hear ya

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      • DR CL says:

        Hey H D
        I know uv been bearish wheat and I know u didnt mean any offence to CB
        But $67 oil ??? 🙂 man that would be something .the pensions would blow up…again
        All I can tell u guys are this years perma bears are now buying dips.

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      • CB says:

        Ok, thanks Lee and HD ..the authprities have spoken..I hear yas too. Hd, no probemo at all..& thanks for explaining things one more extra time for me ( I guess I need it…lol). CL – 66 would look much better than 67, if I can say so( I mean in keeping with the “noir”theme of 666 on AApl and S. Job’s black turtlenecks…on SPX, we covered whatever gaps needed to be covered and the bottom of the regression channel held 2day…and ST offset moving average are doing fine…so no time to panic yet in equities for me just yet…but I am sure I’ll come crying tomorrow asking for your advise guys again…lol

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  3. DR CL says:

    Lots of new longs (day trading scum ) are under water and averaged in
    ESM
    I know what would happen to me if I was in the same boat. Let’s see if the horse shoe is still firmly planted.

    I know I can’t shut my yapper

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  4. Another point to ponder for the bulls:
    SPY 13ema was hit only once between Dec low and early March.. It’s now been hit 3 times in a week.
    Tony,does this mean the top is near?

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