SHORT TERM: consolidation day, DOW -44
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher, gaining 1.8%. Europeans markets were mostly lower, losing 0.5%. US index futures were relatively flat. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported a decline of 0.8% in housing prices: 135.46 vs 136.61. The market opened one point higher from yesterday’s close at SPX 1417. Within the first few minutes the SPX dipped to 1417, then bounced to 1419 by 10:00. At ten Consumer confidence was reported lower: 70.2 vs 70.8. The market then started to pullback. Just after ten FED director Kamin’s congressional testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/kamin20120327a.htm. The pullback continued until around 11:00 when the SPX hit 1416. It then went into a trading range between SPX 1415 and 1418 until the last hout of trading. In the last hour the SPX declined to 1412, and then closed at 1413. Before the close FED governor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20120327a.htm
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude added 20 cents, Gold slid $11.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum declined to below neutral from extremely overbought. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30.
The market opened slightly higher, put in a new uptrend high at SPX 1419, then went into consolidation mode until near the close. The market has had a fairly good run from friday’s SPX 1387 to today’s high. A minor pullback, 8-20 points, from the high would not be surprising. Gold is experiencing that type of pullback today. Gold has also had a fairly good run from $1628 on thursday to $1697 today. The short term OEW charts, which swung positive around SPX 1390, suggest a major pullback, 20+ points, is at least one week away. Short term support is now around SPX 1408, with little overhead resistance until the market hits the 1440 pivot range, SPX 1433-1447. The short term count remains the same. Again, sorry for the delay. Best to your trading.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1419
LONG TERM: bull market