monday update

SHORT TERM: uptrend makes new high, DOW +161

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, losing 0.5%. European markets opened higher and closed +0.9%. US index futures were slightly higher overnight, then started rising dramatically during FED chairman Bernanke’s speech at 8:00: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120326a.htm. At the open the market gapped up to SPX 1405 and continued to rally. The market had closed at SPX 1397 on friday. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower: -0.5% vs +2.0%. Around this time the SPX hit 1412, and then began to pullback. The pullback ended around 12:30 with only a 3 point decline, and then the market resumed its rally. At 1:00 the FED issued: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20120326a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1417, a new uptrend high, and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.80%. Bonds lost 1 tick, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rallied $27.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Tomorrow, Case-Shiller at 9:00, then Consumer confidence at 10:00. Also at 10:00 FED director Kamin testifies before congress on the European financial situation. Then at 12:45 FED chairman Bernanke gives his third lecture on the financial crises. Finally, at 3:00 FED governor Duke gives a speech on building sustainable communities.

Today the market rallied ‘pre-open’ on the chairman’s comments, gapped up at the open, and continued to rally for the rest of the day. Minor wave 2, of Intermediate wave five, appears to have ended at SPX 1387. We updated the hourly chart. Minor wave 3 appears to be underway. The next important resistance area is at the OEW 1440 pivot, and the fibonacci SPX 1448 level. The short term resistance levels at SPX 1408 and 1414 have been cleared. The market has already rallied 30 SPX points since friday’s low, is extremely overbought short term, with the largest pullback only 3 points. Would expect a more significant pullback soon. Sorry for the delay. And, best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1417

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

Investor
This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

45 Responses to monday update

  1. Tony have you gone cruising in your new car 🙂

    Like

  2. DR CL says:

    SPX 60 min TL .. If first you don’t succeed ?

    Thanks Tony

    Like

    • DR CL says:

      DJIA alt count looks interesting also
      CL traded .786 pit range low/high right at the close.
      News vs Rumors The battle is on.

      Like

    • CB says:

      Thanks Lee!! That’s exactly what we needed..lol…We love drama, don’t we. …Oh, did I mention I love grains, too – oh, well at least they didn’t raise margin requirements on those…..heard that AAPl’s first computer was priced at $666. ..
      Thanks Lee!

      Like

      • DR CL says:

        hahaha ur welcome C B
        Imagine what I’d offer if I had a pay site ?
        $666 for AAPL’s 1 st comp ? That’s a wee bit spooky !

        Like

      • CB says:

        “I think last time they did it was June 2011.” Lee, I’ve just looked at the spx chart – it begs the question – did they do it b4 or after the drop? …the usd seems to want to go down from here..and Bernanke not happy with the employment level…hmm…
        Lee, you and a pay site…I hate to think that but I couldn’t afford you with your expertise and what you’d have to charge4 it…would you give a discount to people who don’t follow smart advice anyway..I mean a “complete moron’s discount” ….

        Like

      • DR CL says:

        Hey C B

        Before the drop. May 31 st 2011 perhaps?
        I’d have to charge an amount that would be able for you to pay for in Just One Trade !!!

        Like

      • CB says:

        haha..nice I like that Lee…Lee’s new paying service: “The One”… LOL! -and it pays for itself in the first trade already , ideally…I mean you are showing a ton of empathy here, Lee…you are sooo nice…whatta man … 🙂

        Like

  3. H D says:

    Nice move in Wheat. They even put it in beer sometimes :mrgreen:
    Looking back we have had some symmetry in rallies back from July 09. 360 into 1220, 360 into 1370, 360 into 1434?

    Like

  4. Interesting that oil looks super bullish but the energy equities don’t look so hot for the most part (OIH, $OSX, XLE). Same goes for commodities in general. Curious if anyone has any insight into this bifurcation?

    Like

  5. closed long from 91.68 svxy in the options and volatility folio at 104.54 for a 14.02% profit.

    Like

  6. even though psst indicators are back on buy signal there is still the possibility that wave 3 (started at 1158 spx in nov. 28, 2011) may be topping.

    Like

  7. astrofibo says:

    SP500 Sell Rallye…Fibo…61.8…

    Like

  8. For pivot point lovers tried to code the Frank Ochoa Pivot Boss pivot points on Metatrader platform. Friends are invited to download it free from http://stockmaniacs.net/blog/review-secrets-of-a-pivot-boss-the-pivot-boss-metatrader-formula/

    Like

  9. 5wavemodel says:

    When You’re Wrong You’re Wrong

    http://5wavemodel.blogspot.com/

    Like

Comments are closed.