friday update

SHORT TERM: quiet options expiration, DOW -20

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower losing -0.4%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported higher: +0.4% vs +0.2%, and at 9:15 Industrial production was again reported flat at 0.0% change. The market opened higher at SPX 1404, pushed to 1406 in the opening minutes, and then started to pullback. At 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 74.3 vs 75.3. The pullback found support at SPX 1401 by 10:30, and then entered a trading range between 1401 and 1406. At the close the SPX ended at 1404.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude gained $2.15, Gold added $2, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots, with resistance at the 1440 and 1499 pivots. Short term momentum had a negative divergence and declined to neutral. Today the WLEI was reported higher 48.6% vs 47.9%.

The market opened to the upside, made a new uptrend high, then went into a trading range for the rest of the day. The initial resistance level at SPX 1407, (0.618 wave 1), appears to be holding for now. Today had another small pullback, which has been the pattern for the past 8 trading days. We still look for a more substantial pullback before labeling this rally from SPX 1340 as a first of five waves up from that low. Short term support remains at the 1386 and 1372 pivots. Overhead resistance at SPX 1407 and the 1440 pivot. Short term momentum continues to display a negative divergence. Enjoy the weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1406

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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17 Responses to friday update

    • M1 says:

      If yor count is correct 1435 should be the limit…(wave 3 can not be the shorters wave)

      • M1 says:

        However, If wave 3 ended at 1344 …then 1409 should be the limit

      • M1 says:

        One problem: we are supposed to have 5 waves from 666 to 1370….having that in mind I guess the run from 666 could only be interm wave I or major wave (a)

      • 5wavemodel says:

        Hi M1,
        Our rules differ from EW, although in our model wave 3 cannot be the shortest either. If the move from 1374.76 to our projected point of 1394-1401 is correct, that point would become wave 2. From there, an example wave count would look like this:
        From 1340.03:
        Wave 1 1374.76
        Wave 2 1397
        Wave 3 1415
        Wave 4 1407
        Wave 5 1421
        This count would satisfy our model, and wave 3 would not be the shortest. We still anticipate a top between 1414 and 1421. Outside of that range our criteria for some waves would not be met.

      • 5wavemodel says:

        You are correct. Using your methodology 1435 would be the upper limit of this wave. Our model puts the upper limit at 1422.
        We believe Wave 3 ended at 1370.
        Our model counts 5 waves from 666-1219(Wave 1).
        5 waves from 1219-1010(Wave 2).
        5 waves from 1010-1370(Wave 3).
        5 waves from 1370-1074(Wave 4).
        Currently in wave 5 from 1074(Wave 5).

  1. Igor says:

    Hi Tony,
    your chartlist should be visible despite the ongoing transition. Please, check the button “Make public” in edit format, pres “Edit public settings” then specify a description for your list, assign it to at least one “category” and press “Submit”.
    More information here:

  2. vorfahrt says:

    TRIN is running a bit low here. Public is coming into the market right now. Time for a breather IMO.

  3. budfox9450 says:

    I had the same experience. Enjoy your weekend, and thats for all
    your work in OEW….Bud

  4. Hi Tony,
    Thanks for the work. Looking forward to th weekend update.
    Note, your stockcharts are no longer visible to the public.
    (no idea if stockcharts is in error- just letting you know)

Comments are closed.