SHORT TERM: choppy session today, DOW +28
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower: -0.9%. Europe opened lower but rallied: +1.2%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported unchanged: 351K vs 351K, Personal income was positive but lower: +0.3% vs +0.5%, Personal spending increased: +0.2% vs +0.0%, and PCE prices were positive but unchanged: +0.2% vs +0.2%. The market opened higher at SPX 1369, and continued higher until 10:00 when the SPX hit 1374. At this time ISM manufacturing was reported lower: 52.4 vs 54.1, and Construction spending was reported lower: -0.1% vs +1.5%. The market pulled back to SPX 1368 on the news and then tried to rally again. At 10:30 FED governor Raskin’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/raskin20120301a.htm. Around 2:00 the SPX rally hit 1376. It then pulled back to 1368 by 3:30, and ended the day at 1374.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.40%, and the NDX/NAz were +0.75%. Bonds lost 12 ticks, Crude rallied $2.00, Gold rebounded $29, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX moves back to the 1372 and 1363 pivots, with resistance at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum fluctuated around neutral for most of the day. Tomorrow, the economic slate is clean.
The market opened higher today, rebounding with the rally in Europe. Yesterday’s SPX 1364 low was never challenged, and neither was yesterday’s uptrend high at 1378. The market stayed within an 8 point trading range, (SPX 1368-1376), for the entire day consolidating. When we review the short term charts we find this advance, from the Minute wave iv low at SPX 1337, has had four noticeable pullbacks. Usually the next new high should complete this wave: Minute wave v. But this market continues to grind out slightly higher highs without any meaningful pullback. The upper trendline continues to limit the rallies, and is now in the low 1380’s. Until this market makes a pullback of over 20 points, and drops below support at 1352, it could continue to grind its way higher.
Short term support is now at the 1372 and 1363 pivots, and overhead resistance is at the 1386 and 1440 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day above neutral. The short term OEW charts continue to remain positive with support at the 1363 pivot. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1378
LONG TERM: bull market