monday update

Posted on February 27, 2012 by tony caldaro

SHORT TERM: interesting day, DOW -1

Overnight the Asian markets were all lower: losing 1.2%. European markets opened lower and lost 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight as well, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1360. The SPX closed at 1366 on friday. Within the opening minutes the market declined to SPX 1355, got oversold, and then began to rally. At 10:00 Pending homes sales were reported higher: +2.0% vs -3.5%. The rally continued until the market made a new uptrend high at SPX 1371, equalling the bull market high in May 2011, around 1:00. A small pullback to SPX 1368 followed, and then the SPX notched another high at 1372. At 3:00 the FED issued the following:  http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/enforcement/20120227a.htm. Heading into the close the SPX pulled back to end the day at 1368.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude lost $2.00, Gold slipped $6, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at the 1363 and 1313 pivots, with resistance at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Short term momentum hit oversold this morning and then rallied past neutral. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30, Case-Shiller at 9:00, then Consumer confidence at 10:00. Also at 10:00 Senate testimony from FED governor Duke on housing.

Today the market gapped down at the open and hit SPX 1355 in the first few minutes. After that 14 point pullback, from friday’s SPX 1369 high, the market turned right around and made a new uptrend high. When the SPX hit 1371 it cleared the OEW 1363 pivot, and is now in the 1372 pivot range. The short term wave count is now getting quite choppy. Every pullback since the Minute wave iv SPX 1337 low has overlapped the previous rally. Either the market is nesting a series of 1-2’s, which is unlikely, or there is another diagonal in progress. Short term support remains at SPX 1352, 1341 and then the 1313 pivot. Overhead resistance is at the 1372 and 1386 pivots. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1372

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

About tony caldaro

Investor
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53 Responses to monday update

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  1. DR CL says:
    February 28, 2012 at 2:50 pm

    CMG & PCLN

    Cheap longs

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  3. DR CL says:
    February 28, 2012 at 12:48 pm

    It’s still that time SPX

    CL chopping the herd

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  4. H D says:
    February 28, 2012 at 11:16 am

    option 1 up, option 2 down, option 3 sideways, option 4 up before down, option 5 down before up.

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  5. dwr51 says:
    February 28, 2012 at 10:45 am

    Just interresting
    During the recent run-up the BSE500 (India) made the second greatest advance approx. 23%.with Russia the first with an advance of approx. 24%. India is now the only index to correct more than 5% (6.99% to date ). If this is any indication then the RTSI, Dax, Hang Seng and IBOV bear watching closely.
    Dave

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  7. uncle10 says:
    February 28, 2012 at 10:04 am

    Hey RC,
    “There’s just plain too much money to spend and nowhere else to put it”.
    I agree with you! There is an ocean full of money.
    It’s all just numbers on a screen.

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    • rc1269 says:
      February 28, 2012 at 10:27 am

      All the “fundamental” reasons folks state about why to invest in one thing and avoid another thing are fairly moot these days, in my view. i think that’s why technicals (and EW for that matter) are such useful tools. If we paid attention to all the “why’s” in the world right now, you probably shouldn’t be buying anything. But many people have to buy stuff, and will buy stuff, so something somewhere will go up. In the end it’s all about capital flows and relativity. I personally don’t think stocks look all that great, but central banks have made just about everything else look even worse, so it’s just a matter of time until capital flows into equities. Sure it takes breathers, which in my view is mostly due to the fact that there are a lot of weak longs in the market; many people hate stocks but buy them anyway because we’re essentially forced to. but that creates a lot of itchy trigger fingers when real fear hits the mkt. one of the lovely biproducts of liquidity induced rallies, in my view.

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  9. Samuel Aguhob says:
    February 28, 2012 at 7:37 am

    The Rock Says (Avi Gilburt) That Oil is in 3rd wave up…

    http://elliottwave.info/?p=218

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  10. rc1269 says:
    February 28, 2012 at 7:35 am

    durable goods – what happened to our decoupling??

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