tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market gaps up then retreats, DOW -21

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.0%. European markets opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported a 1.3% decline in housing prices. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1318 and continued to rally to 1320 in the opening minutes. The SPX had closed at 1313 yesterday. At 9:45, when the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 60.2 vs 62.5 the market started to pullback. Then at 10:00, when Consumer confidence was reported lower: 61.1 vs 64.5 the pullback continued. Just before noon the SPX hit 1307 and tried to rally. Just before 3:00 the SPX hit 1314 and trhen pulled back some to close at 1312.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds gained 8 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold gained $11, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX drops to 1303 and then 1291, with resistance now at 1313 and then 1363. Short term momentum hit overbought this morning, declined below neutral, and ended the day above it. Tomorrow at 8:15 the ADP index, at 10:00 ISM manufacturing and Construction spending, than Auto sales after that. At 2:00 FED director Bertsch gives testimony before the senate on banking supervision.

Today’s gap up opening was sold as quickly as yesterday’s gap down opening was bought. Traders appear to have more control of the market than either buyers or sellers since last thursday’s SPX 1333 uptrend high. Over the past few days we have had a 33 point decline to SPX 1300. Then a 21 point rally to today’s SPX 1321 high. What followed has been a 14 point pullback to SPX 1307, and then a 7 point bounce to 1314. We labeled yesterday’s SPX 1300 low Minute wave A, and today’s 1321 high Minute wave B. Minute wave C, of Minor wave 4, should be currently underway. Should Minute C find support at SPX 1300 it could end Minor wave 4 with a small flat. Should Minute C find support at SPX 1288 it could end Minor 4 with a simple zigzag. In both cases the low should be around the OEW 1291 pivot range, and Minor wave 4 would have taken about 1 week.

Short term support slips to the 1303 and 1291 pivots, then SPX 1278. Overhead resistance is at the 1313 pivot, then SPX 1327/33 and 1345/47. Short term momentum declined from overbought this morning to around neutral. Our short term OEW charts are currently at neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1333

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

About tony caldaro

Investor
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58 Responses to tuesday update

  1. magnus1234 says:

    EWT on CAC40. It looks like minute 3 is not done yet. RSI on Daily still to low? This differ from SP500. On the other hand CAC40 has been more punished than SP500.

    LTRO II at the end of the month and possibly a positive outcome of the PSI talks on Greece in the cards pave the way for a higher CAC40 in the next 2-3 weeks.

    In addition COT report for SP500 indicates commercial reducing their net short and “dumb” money reducing their net long.

    Weekly
    http://screencast.com/t/Ardgs9KS9
    Daily
    http://screencast.com/t/Jqq0YeylI
    60 min
    http://screencast.com/t/Gsa2PrVDCx

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  2. DR CL says:

    Heck I think it was a B wave ! 😛

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  3. DR CL says:

    What’s new people ?
    Cmon it’s the internet it doesn’t have to be 100% the truth but it has to be entertaining 🙂
    CL on its lows

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    • DR CL says:

      We used to have a guy on the Merc floor who’s father is Eli Tullis u guys might of heard of him but maybe most are too young. Well he was Eli jr. ET was his badge and he would come out of the pit and ask my buddy who was the local EWT expert on about every rally from 1987 to 1999 . Feels like a B wave 🙂
      Well guys does it feel like a B wave ?

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      • tony caldaro says:

        Lee, Small world.I worked with Eli Tullis in the late 1980’s and talked with his son, Jr. on the floor many times.Eli and I rode the post crash 1987 lows right into the July 1990 top, nearly to the top tick.It was very hard keeping the King of the Cotton market in a SPX position for weeks and months at a time.

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      • DR CL says:

        Tony
        Eli Sr. cleared his S&P trades thru Stotler & Company and that was all his own money if I’m correct yes? LOL he put em on and that was pre split !
        Tony it is a small world ! I learned to drive stick on Eli Jr’s old Brown Volvo that he let my buddy borrow weekends at a time. I won’t get into anymore specifics but Eli Jr was a HOOT to have a few drinks with. Did you talk to Jr when he was on the floor because if u were I was standing right there watching because that desk where he used the phone constantly was Tudors order desk ran by my buddy PW (thats his badge hed kick me in the pants if I gave his name out). Crazy small world !

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        • tony caldaro says:

          Yes it was all Eli’s own money.He cornered the entire Cotton market in the 70’s remember?Yes talked to Jr. on the floor.He had a difficult time understanding EW.But talked to Eli every day, a number of times a day, for a few years.Great guy! We had lots of fun.

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      • DR CL says:

        Tony
        I re read ur post now I’m thinking I’ve heard ur name now way before this blog. Power of suggestion or just a traders memory 🙂

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      • CB says:

        Wow you guys have some extremely interesting trading experiences…we just need to know to ask the right questions … So I just googled Eli Tullis, and this P.T. Jones quote came up: “He [Eli Tullis] was the toughest son of a bitch I ever knew. He taught me that trading is very competitive and you have to be able to handle getting your butt kicked. No matter how you cut it, there are enormous emotional ups and downs involved.”[5]
        OK, we are all ears now…want to to hear everything about that “toughest SOB’s” MO…cause we want to be like that guy too… 😉
        Tony, so you used to be a floor trader too?

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        • tony caldaro says:

          Floor trader? Me? Never.Have been on the floor of the COMEX and that’s it.Eli taught PTJ everything he knew about trading.I taught Eli everything he knew about EW.Never spoke to Paul though.But apparently Jones is a good EW tech too.I never saw the tough part of Eli Tullis.We worked quite well together.

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      • DR CL says:

        This just makes my day !
        Tony I talked to the “old man ” a few times when I was working a currency desk . But I LOVED talking to JR and his brother Garner who came down a bit later… by far the best accents on the floor. And when he got married to the gal from All My Children(again Im not using names ) I thought man theres an ass for every seat. 🙂 Good ole days !

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      • DR CL says:

        BINGO !

        Lee, I published a newsletter then:Long-Term Trends.Was on FNN/CNBC every few weeks for about two years.

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      • DR CL says:

        That’s pretty cool Tony

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      • CB says:

        “I taught Eli everything he knew about EW.” …Oh myTony, you’ve got some royalties coming, don’t you?…nice!
        Lee and Tony, our legends 🙂 Lucky us!

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    • DR CL says:

      Hey C B
      I’m no legend LOL
      I was just present on the floor and back offices.
      But we don’t need Kevin Bacon to tie Tony and I together now.
      Eli saw Courtney Cox also Im pretty sure 🙂

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      • CB says:

        Well Lee where u were “present” it means a lot to stay present for such a long & survive ur own learning curve…so yes ur a legend….and a role model for us here… 🙂
        Courtney Cox…yes,maybe she should of taken a closer look at that guy that day…maybe she would of avoided some mistakes later on … .one of these days she’ll be available, pay attention you guys 🙂 ….if she can ever let go…which is really hard for her, it seems.

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      • DR CL says:

        C B
        I just read ur post to my wife and she said Courtney can have me. 😛
        Honestly I think I’m a bit too much for either of them to handle 🙂

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      • CB says:

        ..”for such a long time” I meant to say..sorry

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      • CB says:

        Haha..yes, ur a challenge, Lee ,aren’t you…aka a handful…and that makes you interesting …I can see how CC might not quite work for you cause you two are not exactly opposites 😉 …and can’t comment on ur Mrs of course…but hey ur mother in Law Lee, she is a tremendous help …
        “I just read ur post to my wife” – Oh no, now I’ll have to censor my posts to make them Mrs-approved…hey, that’ll limit my self-expression…that’s asking too much… 🙂

        In summary, this better be a B wave…or else…lol

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  4. M1 says:

    Tony, I see you updated the 60min chart…very possible….minor 4 or a….. either way…the mondays lows looks to me like the line in the sand…neutral above ..bearish below that level..
    I am not planning to go long for the moment
    Thanks

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  5. M1 says:

    Hi Tony, this is what I was mentioning you a few days ago…shorters expecting minor 4 going lower and the market jumping higher…and they run to cover…
    In my opinion minor 4 is in place
    GL

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  6. rc1269 says:

    Why do people believe Chinese economic data?

    That’s a serious question. There is no precedent to suggest it is accurate or truthful. Quite the contrary, in fact.

    Nobody believes a mafia tax return, but they believe Chinese economic data. Seems like a bad idea to me.

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