tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrends highs in quiet trading, DOW -3

Overnight the Asian markets open lost 0.7%. European markets fared better gaining 0.2%. US index futures were slightly lower overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported a 1.2% decline in housing prices for the recent month. The market opened lower at SPX 1263, dipped to 1262, and then started to rally. The SPX had closed at 1265 on friday. Around 10:00 the SPX hit 1269, a new uptrend high, and then started to pullback. Also at 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 64.5 vs 56.0. At 11:00 the SPX had retraced only four points to 1265, and then started to drift higher. At 2:00 the SPX hit 1269 again, and again started to pullback. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1265 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.25%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.70, Gold dropped $13.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1291 and then 1303. Short term momentum declined after being extremely overbought to neutral. Tomorrow, the economic calendar is clear.

The market rallied in the first half hour of trading to a new uptrend high at SPX 1269. After a pullback to SPX 1265 by 11:00 the day was essentially over as the market stayed within that four point range for the rest of the day. Short term OEW charts remain positive with support now around the upper end of the OEW 1240 pivot range. Short term support remains at the 1261 pivot range, SPX 1250, and the 1240 pivot range. Short term resistance is at SPX 1278, then the 1291 and 1303 pivot ranges. Technical indicators suggest the market may now be in a minor 10+ point pullback from today’s high. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: DOW confirmed uptrend, others majors likely to follow

LONG TERM: inflection point

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

About tony caldaro

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46 Responses to tuesday update

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  2. “Short term support remains at the 1261 pivot range, SPX 1250, and the 1240 pivot range.” From your Tuesday Report, Tony. The low thus far is 1250.05. Pretty good.

    If you could figure out how to narrow it down from three support levels to just one, that would really be a tremendous trading tool.

    Setting up for a very strong signal at tomorrow’s (Thursday’s) close.


    • Lee says:

      Hi C B
      1244.75 was a S3 on my ESH charts I took the op to cover a trade but I am not long so its probably a good spot to be so 🙂


      • CB says:

        Hi Lee. Thanks! Nice short. 🙂 I only got a small piece of that (You are right some of us need to get up earlier ;). I hope I can trail this now to abt 1259 and see what happens…

        Tony, so R U saying that ur grandson got a puppy for Christmas and YOU have to get up early to take care of it now ? 😉


      • CB says:

        Oh yes, Gerony…I remember you told us a while ago, Tony…the perfect countryside living just has to come with a puppy, right : ) Can U show us a pic sometime when you get a chance? We need some puppy love here sometimes …lol


  3. ggok1 says:

    Hi tony
    Dollar looking strong.
    This pull back looks a bit strong as a result of the strength in the dollar.
    This has gone beyond a 10 point pull back, how low is ok, before a iv wave count gets negated?


  4. Lee says:

    You guys need to get up earlier in the morning 🙂


  5. scottycj1 says:

    Full “Sell Signal” for indexes this morning 9:55 am ET


  6. ggok1 says:

    Thanks tony for your response.


  7. SPX and VIX were both up on the same day… and my observation is that usually precedes a change in trend. SInce we were rising into a turn window of 23 Dec, that should be a high and selling could start anytime and continue into the 20 week Hurst low in the first week of Jan.

    In Elliot wave, we are still in that bearish wedge. Either we have completed it during globex, or we will only have an ABC corrective wave in the cash markets from the 1202 low. Hourly chart of SPX has signaled an MACD sell. Now waiting for daily to do the same.



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