friday update

SHORT TERM: post holiday rally fizzles, DOW -26

Overnight the Asian markets were all lower. Europe opened lower but closed +0.85%. Overnight US index futures were lower as well. At the open the SPX hit 1160 and began to rally. The market had closed at SPX 1162 on wednesday. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1173, another neutral reading on momentum, and began to pullback. The rest of the shortened trading day was to the downside. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1159 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.75%. Bonds lost 19 ticks, Crude gained 30 cents, Gold slid $14.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1146 and then 1136, with resistance at 1168 and then 1176. Short term momentum rose off the positive divergence at the low, but ended negative. Today the WLEI was reported higher for the fourth week in a row: 42.7.

The market rallied early today after hitting another fibonacci retracement support level (61.8%) at SPX 1158. The actual low was SPX 1160. We have observed this kind of activity since the 38.2% retracement level (SPX 1210) was hit last thursday. Then the market rallied 15 points: SPX 1209-1224. After the next fibonacci retracement level (50.0%) at SPX 1184 was hit on monday, the market also rallied 15 points: 1183-1198. During all three instances the hourly RSI has failed to rise much above neutral after hitting a quite to extreme oversold condition. Until this pattern changes this decline will likely continue. The next fibonacci retracement level is at SPX 1126 (76.4%). Enjoy the weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: probable downtrend continues

LONG TERM: neutral

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

About tony caldaro

Investor
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38 Responses to friday update

  1. vishal409 says:

    Tony heard quite a lot about the Friday sale what did ya pick up?

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  2. Pingback: friday update

  3. gselsidi says:

    On another note after watching mikes video, what better way to destroy sovereign countries, then by purposely crashing economies and then offer the perfect solution: united states of Europe.

    Maybe this time around the European constitution will get ratified out od desperation and false hope. Sounds like a perfect plan to me.

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    • CB says:

      Good point Elsid. Pretty sad how ppl in Europe have given up their sovereignty to the “commision.”
      “The formation of the European Union is the best example of harmonization in modern history.” – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmonisation_of_law
      It’s no coincidence that the word “harmonization” inlcudes the word “harm,” is it? 😦

      When one thinks about all the USD-denominated loans being given now to the various European countries by the IMF, one has to conclude that they are going to help ensure that the USD retains it’s world reserve currency status. I mean these huge obligations are going to be on the books for many, many years. Isn’t it what the whole game had been about, anyway – long live the USD…
      Also, talking about equities, it seems that the selling in copper has exhausted itself today, or not(?) http://screencast.com/t/weC53YOvsp

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  4. gselsidi says:

    Catch I think you should focus on the next top to short. It’s hard catching bottoms in a bear market. Just like it’s hard catching tops in bull markets.

    Just my two cents

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  5. zimbabweanimike says:


    this guy is real funny, survived a plan crash this year, the wrecked plane was scrap….

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