SHORT TERM: market gaps up again, DOW +147
Overnight the Asian markets reversed a three day all down, with an all up. Europe opened higher and soared 4.65%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 9:00 the Case-Shiller housing price index was reported higher: 142.77 vs 141.30. The market gapped up at the open again. The SPX started at 1175 and continued to rally. The market had closed at SPX 1163 yesterday. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported slightly higher: 45.4 vs 44.5. The market continued to rise until about 11:00 when the SPX hit 1193. For the next two hours the market went into a trading range between 1187 and 1193. Then around 1:00 it started to rally again. Just past 2:00 the SPX hit its high for the day at 1196, was extremely overbought short term, and started to pullback. Nearing the end of the day the market nearly closed the opening gap. Just near the close the SPX dropped hit 1170, and then bounced to end the day at 1175.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.00%. Bonds lost 18 ticks, Crude rallied $3.45, Gold gained $20.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX rises to 1168 and then 1146, with resistance at 1176 and then 1187. Short term momentum hit neutral after being extremely overbought. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30, then a speech from FED chairman Bernanke at 5:00, after the market is closed.
The market gapped up again today on overnight buying. The SPX gapped over two pivots, 1168 and 1176, before runing into resistance at the 1187 pivot. Then just when it looked like it had cleared that pivot as well, the market sold off sharply. Nevertheless, short term OEW charts remain positive as along as the 1168 pivot range holds. This market remians quite choppy and quite volatile. Several medium term patterns remain at work. This market will probably sort itself out by this weekend. Short term support at the 1168 pivot, the mid-1150’s, and the 1146 pivot. Overhead resistance is at the 1176/1187 pivots and the low 1200’s. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend low SPX 1102
LONG TERM: bear market highly probable