SHORT TERM: market opens flat, DOW -92
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.05%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported another uptick in month over month housing prices, yet the annual rate of change was -4.5% vs -4.0%. The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1336. The SPX had closed at 1337 yesterday. Within the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 1330. This exceeded yesterday’s low by one point, and increased the current pullback, from SPX 1347, to 17 points. After that the market tried to rally. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 59.5 vs 58.5, and New home sales lower: 312K vs 319K. Then with minor pullbacks of 2 and 3 points along the way, the market rallied to SPX 1339 by 2:30. After that the market dropped to SPX 1330 again before closing at 1332.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rose $5.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit oversold again this morning and then turned higher. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30, then the FED’s Beige book at 2:00.
The market opened relatively flat today. Then it took out yesterday’s low at SPX 1331, by one point, before rallying to 1339 by 2:30. In the last hour of trading the market gave the entire bounce back. OEW short term charts swung negative early today, and the rally carried right into resistance. The short term bias is now down. Support is now at SPX 1327, then the 1313 and 1291 pivot ranges. Overhead resistance at SPX 1337, 1344, and then the 1363 pivot range. We took a look at our long term technical indicators today, and six of the eight are displaying negative divergences. Not a good sign longer term. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1356
LONG TERM: bull market at inflection point
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Pingback: tuesday update
who’s long here ?
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Hey Tony
INDU took out green 4 correct ?
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game on..
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Yes, Lee … in the last hour
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Meee! 😦 and after I see the futures trading tonight I’ll have to scream myself to sleep…
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C B
Give em heck !!!
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sentimentrader Jason Goepfert
In that last tweet, the 16 occurrences were only those when S&P > 200day average. If it was below, the next-day win rate was 66%
heres a useless tweet but found it interesting C B
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sentimentrader Jason Goepfert
If S&P futures down 4 in a row, with last day -1.5% or worse, it was up the next day 15/16 times. Need Washington to cooperate!
sorry this was it..
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Thanks for that link, Lee! 🙂 Looks really interesting
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got the 1300’s – felt terrible. HUGE volume.
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Same ole pivots different day
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equities ? boring
CL any moron can trade it
CTN a real gentlemans mkt.
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or not 🙂
interesting close coming
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My pattern got blown out so it was only luck that it lasted as long as it did. It’s acting like 4-5’s here. What a hit though! there’s buyers at 1300 IMmoronO
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Hey H D
In a patternless mkt u did very well 🙂
I’ll take lucky anyday 🙂
all stops just now in ES
it doesnt get back under 1300 we’ll be trading 1331 by midnite 🙂
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🙂 Nice, Lee. On top of all the $$ you’ve collected tody, ur also gonna get some brownie points from us for doing ur executive summary, which is truly of the Rolls- Royce class.
P.S. Thanks Lee, we’re worth it 🙂
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Hey guys I’m a giver LOL
Haven’t made an ESU trade in 6 weeks now
its been 20 years since I can say that.
Enjoy the ride 🙂
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6 weeks! Rehab amigo
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HD, is it OK to twist ur trading advise a bit and say it’s OK to go long at the end of the day when one should essentially go short.. ?
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oops advice, not advise 🙂
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Lee if I remember correctly trading SPX/ES is for folks who hate themselves…so u must be feeling much better now… 🙂
OK, guys we are at (temp) support here, right ??
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haaaaaa Im working on it C B 🙂
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Great Lee! Imagine ur walking away from a burning building….just keep walking… 🙂
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Gee all the noise about a US downgrade and the dollar is rallying hard…mmm. Who’d want to buy the currency of a country about to be DOWNgraded??? A higher interest rate would actually be bullish for the dollar as well but the 10 year has gone from 3% yesterday to 2.97 right now. Go figure (just a little sarcasm here – ignore the media).
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We’re AA it’s already priced in 🙂
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H D
This is a cheap long here then w/pivot and your chart maybe ?
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http://flic.kr/p/a7zE4y

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thanks guys!
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Closed SPY short. Going long in a couple of small cap lottery tickets. Yippie ki yay!!!
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Nice rookie!
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hey, nice rookie… that was gutsy …OK< I am gonna jump the next time you say "jump" ! well, I tried to go long twice today already …and getting tired of it…I'll probably miss a good entry now…
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Nice Wave!
CB- I finally figured out that placing ur order where you would put a stop works better for entry

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nice trade waverookie.
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Hey, yes HD 🙂 ..that’s from physics, right?…they work like magnets….actually I was messing with 1 minute charts cuz they seemed the most reliable
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Thanks. GL all! You could make a fortune off of these 1313 and 1303 pivots. They have been magnets all year!
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“MA89 signal on deck. Should get a washout if they lose 1330 IMO”
Just like hunting. You don’t always get a clean shot the first time. Gotta reload!
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true dat.
So was the move from recent lows 1291.25 to recent highs 1347.75
concidered anther abc up ?
thanks
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X wave… Jk yes- they have all been 3’s since Feb (1345) in my count. 1313 pivot time!
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HD, you counting Feb on as a triangle?
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Pivot pool so far .
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X wave !!! I was going to say if it walks like an X wave and quacks like one 🙂
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Then it must be a politician 😉
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Hi Tony, I’ve been counting a terminal pattern. Distribution top. Not continuation triangle.
http://flic.kr/p/a4x7tA
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Hi HD,Thanks.So you are counting the entire bull market as a bear market rally?Wave A 1220, wave B 1011, and wave C still unfolding?
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Honestly- I don’t know. They work as 5’s IMO. 5-3-5 works too though.
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EUR.USD strength and Dow weakness – something rarely seen during the past decade.
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thanks T,
yen with a 77 handle.. lol
let me get this straight, a country with 1/3 of it under gamma rays, and a 200 percent gdp to debt.
(no position in it but amazing)
http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FXY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_10,sma2_200,sma_55,sma2_20,sar_0.02_0.2,rsi_a_5,stofu_a_5_5_3,macd_b_12_26_9,adx_b_12,cci_b_12&p=d&s=l
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133 target Mike
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you raise it in last 10 days with a time frame change? seems it changed? . no big deal
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No. Been that way since the last report. https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/foreign-currency-and-usd-update/and the report before thathttps://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/03/29/the-japanese-yen-jpyusd/
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your the coolest dude on the planet.
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/03/29/the-japanese-yen-jpyusd/
the link was directed to a search, and was super quick to reference your refection on “Yen”.
search is cool btw.
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Hi Mike, Only in the house, these days, only in the house.
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Thanks, Tony. Is the Fed still doing those asset swaps with banks, whereby The Fed accept s non-performing paper in exchange for Treasuries…or was it only a short-term emergency measure?…I seem to recall that there was a notion at some point that there was a “shortage” of Treasuries available to the Fed (compared with the value of all non-performing private debt they were taking on their balance sheet)….in other words, is it possible that all this talk about reducing the U.S. deficit right now is basically insincere because both the Gov. and the Fed realize that they need to keep issuing much more public debt just to keep the private financial system from defaulting?…so while everyone is talking about a possible sovereign default, (which: a/ wouldn’t be prudent, right? & b/ not gonna happen anyway, right?) 😉 isn’t this debate really just a smoke screen, which is hiding a different problem (?)
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CB,The FED does have a lot of ‘not so good’ paper on their books from their bankster buddies.At some point they’ll unload it for a loss.
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“not so good” – lol…that sounds good Tony…the good news is, credit rating agencies are not gonna knock on the Fed’s door anytime soon…heck, which part of “above -the -law” don’t I understand….(?)
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CB,The FED does not have to show a profit.
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oh, that is so sweet… that’s why they’re always “winning” 🙂
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perfect DC world view
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