tuesday update

Posted on July 26, 2011 by tony caldaro

SHORT TERM: market opens flat, DOW -92

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.05%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 9:00 Case-Shiller reported another uptick in month over month housing prices, yet the annual rate of change was -4.5% vs -4.0%. The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1336. The SPX had closed at 1337 yesterday. Within the opening minutes the SPX dropped to 1330. This exceeded yesterday’s low by one point, and increased the current pullback, from SPX 1347, to 17 points. After that the market tried to rally. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported higher: 59.5 vs 58.5, and New home sales lower: 312K vs 319K. Then with minor pullbacks of 2 and 3 points along the way, the market rallied to SPX 1339 by 2:30. After that the market dropped to SPX 1330 again before closing at 1332.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 11 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rose $5.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit oversold again this morning and then turned higher. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30, then the FED’s Beige book at 2:00.

The market opened relatively flat today. Then it took out yesterday’s low at SPX 1331, by one point, before rallying to 1339 by 2:30. In the last hour of trading the market gave the entire bounce back. OEW short term charts swung negative early today, and the rally carried right into resistance. The short term bias is now down. Support is now at SPX 1327, then the 1313 and 1291 pivot ranges. Overhead resistance at SPX 1337, 1344, and then the 1363 pivot range. We took a look at our long term technical indicators today, and six of the eight are displaying negative divergences. Not a good sign longer term. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1356

LONG TERM: bull market at inflection point

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987

About tony caldaro

Investor
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59 Responses to tuesday update

  1. Pingback: tuesday update

  2. Lee X says:
    July 27, 2011 at 2:58 pm

    who’s long here ?

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  3. Lee X says:
    July 27, 2011 at 2:19 pm

    Same ole pivots different day

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  4. Lee X says:
    July 27, 2011 at 2:03 pm

    equities ? boring
    CL any moron can trade it
    CTN a real gentlemans mkt.

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    • Lee X says:
      July 27, 2011 at 2:13 pm

      or not 🙂

      interesting close coming

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      • H D says:
        July 27, 2011 at 2:19 pm

        My pattern got blown out so it was only luck that it lasted as long as it did. It’s acting like 4-5’s here. What a hit though! there’s buyers at 1300 IMmoronO

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      • Lee X says:
        July 27, 2011 at 2:26 pm

        Hey H D
        In a patternless mkt u did very well 🙂
        I’ll take lucky anyday 🙂
        all stops just now in ES
        it doesnt get back under 1300 we’ll be trading 1331 by midnite 🙂

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    • CB says:
      July 27, 2011 at 2:17 pm

      🙂 Nice, Lee. On top of all the $$ you’ve collected tody, ur also gonna get some brownie points from us for doing ur executive summary, which is truly of the Rolls- Royce class.
      P.S. Thanks Lee, we’re worth it 🙂

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    • CB says:
      July 27, 2011 at 2:22 pm

      HD, is it OK to twist ur trading advise a bit and say it’s OK to go long at the end of the day when one should essentially go short.. ?

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    • CB says:
      July 27, 2011 at 2:23 pm

      oops advice, not advise 🙂

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    • CB says:
      July 27, 2011 at 2:42 pm

      Lee if I remember correctly trading SPX/ES is for folks who hate themselves…so u must be feeling much better now… 🙂
      OK, guys we are at (temp) support here, right ??

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  5. tommyboys says:
    July 27, 2011 at 10:42 am

    Gee all the noise about a US downgrade and the dollar is rallying hard…mmm. Who’d want to buy the currency of a country about to be DOWNgraded??? A higher interest rate would actually be bullish for the dollar as well but the 10 year has gone from 3% yesterday to 2.97 right now. Go figure (just a little sarcasm here – ignore the media).

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  6. Lee X says:
    July 27, 2011 at 10:13 am

    H D

    This is a cheap long here then w/pivot and your chart maybe ?

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  7. H D says:
    July 27, 2011 at 8:55 am

    “MA89 signal on deck. Should get a washout if they lose 1330 IMO”
    Just like hunting. You don’t always get a clean shot the first time. Gotta reload! :mrgreen:

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  8. breakoutpullback says:
    July 27, 2011 at 5:58 am

    EUR.USD strength and Dow weakness – something rarely seen during the past decade.

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  9. zimbabweanimike says:
    July 26, 2011 at 6:46 pm

    thanks T,
    yen with a 77 handle.. lol
    let me get this straight, a country with 1/3 of it under gamma rays, and a 200 percent gdp to debt.
    (no position in it but amazing)
    http://elite.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=FXY&ty=c&ta=st_c,sch_200p,sma_10,sma2_200,sma_55,sma2_20,sar_0.02_0.2,rsi_a_5,stofu_a_5_5_3,macd_b_12_26_9,adx_b_12,cci_b_12&p=d&s=l

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  10. CB says:
    July 26, 2011 at 3:52 pm

    Thanks, Tony. Is the Fed still doing those asset swaps with banks, whereby The Fed accept s non-performing paper in exchange for Treasuries…or was it only a short-term emergency measure?…I seem to recall that there was a notion at some point that there was a “shortage” of Treasuries available to the Fed (compared with the value of all non-performing private debt they were taking on their balance sheet)….in other words, is it possible that all this talk about reducing the U.S. deficit right now is basically insincere because both the Gov. and the Fed realize that they need to keep issuing much more public debt just to keep the private financial system from defaulting?…so while everyone is talking about a possible sovereign default, (which: a/ wouldn’t be prudent, right? & b/ not gonna happen anyway, right?) 😉 isn’t this debate really just a smoke screen, which is hiding a different problem (?)

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