monday update

SHORT TERM: market rebounds again, DOW +109

Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Personal income was reported positive: +0.3% vs +0.4%, but Personal spending was reported flat: 0.0% vs +0.4%. Also PCE prices remained positive: +0.3% vs +0.2%. The market opened higher at SPX 1270, then dipped to 1268 where it had closed on friday. After that a rally began to SPX 1279 by 10:30. After a pullback to SPX 1275 by 11:30 the market moved higher again. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 1285, its best level of the day, and then pulled back into a 1280 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.45%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude slipped 40 cents, Gold slid $4.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1291 and then 1303. Short term momentum rose to overbought after touching oversold friday. Tomorrow, Case-Shiller at 9:00, then Consumer confidence at 10:00.

The market opened relatively flat today, within the OEW 1261 pivot range (1268), and then proceded to rally into the 1291 pivot range (1285). Quite a nice move for just one day. Especially since the market did not require a gap up opening to get going. This market remains, however, still within a multi-week SPX 1258 to 1299 trading range. Techs and Financials both did well today. And, it will probably take continued strength in these sectors to pull this market out of its downtrend. We continue to remain somewhat defensive short/medium term until we get some clears signs that this downtrend has likely ended. The market has been quite choppy, with a downward bias, for all but two weeks of this eight week correction. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend low SPX 1258

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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25 Responses to monday update

  1. MGD says:

    I think we are abt a turning point….I went short….stop at 1300…risk/reward 10/60 …


  2. Lee X says:

    pivot time + .382 months low/high = 1287 ES
    old man still has it …have a great day !


  3. Elliott Wave Forecast For 6.28.11


  4. Zig Zag says:

    Thanks Tony. Nice work as always.


  5. Zig Zag says:

    Thanks Tony. Nice work as alway.


  6. MGD says:

    Thanks Tony,
    Worse scenario: Wave 5 = 1.62 of 1; or Wave 5 = 2.62 of 4.
    1.62*59=96; 2.62*40=105
    1298-105=1193 …right at …the line in the sand….could be that possible, Tony ?


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