wednesday update

SHORT TERM: today’s market rebound somewhat more successful, DOW +38

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened lower but closed +0.25%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported lower: -3.6% vs +4.1%. The market opened at SPX 1312, it’s lowest level since the 1371 high. The SPX had closed at 1316 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market rallied to SPX 1316. At 10:00 FHFA home prices were reported higher: +0.3% vs -1.6%. The market then pulled back to SPX 1313 by 10:30 and then began to rally again. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 1322, pulled back to 1318 by 1:30, then headed higher again. At 3:00 the SPX hit 1326 and then pulled back to close at 1320.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.45%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.55, Gold slipped $1.00, and the USD was flat. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum was rising most of the day. Tomorrow, Q1 GDP (revision) and the weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.

The market opened at the OEW 1313 pivot today, held support, and then rallied. The rally, though not much, was the best one this week. If the SPX can get back above 1324 and hold it, this rally could reach the upper 1330’s. Very important support remains at the 1313 pivot and then the 1303 pivot. Short term resistance is at 1324, then the 1363/1372 pivots.

As this month’s choppy action, with a negative bias, continues it certainly appears that this market has been in a downtrend since the SPX 1371 uptrend high. Still no OEW confirmation yet. But we suspect one will be forthcoming. Support for a downtrend would be SPX 1295, the April low, and then, 1249 the March low. Will keep you posted. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1371

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987