REVIEW
The US market started the week making new uptrend highs and this progressed into new bull markets highs into week’s end. Positive economic reports outpaced negative reports about two to one. On the positive side: New/Pending home sales, Consumer confidence, Public sentiment and Durable goods orders rose; Personal income/spending and PCE prices remained positive, and the Monetary base hit a new record high. On the negative side: Q1 GDP, the Case-Shiller index, the Chicago PMI, the M1-multiplier and the WLEI were all lower; plus weekly Jobless claims rose. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.2%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.5%. Asian markets declined 1.5%, European market rose 2.1%, the Commodity equity group was -0.8%, and the DJ World index was +1.8%. US Bonds gained 0.8%, Crude was +1.5%, Gold rose +3.8%, and the USD was -1.3%. Next week will be highlighted by ISM, Auto sales and the Payrolls report.
LONG TERM: bull market
The worldwide bull market continues to unfold as anticipated. A Cycle wave [1] bull market off the March 2009 Supercycle wave 2 low is underway. The Cycle wave is unfolding in five Primary waves, and these waves are dividing into Major waves as the bull market unfolds. From the Mar09 low at SPX 667 Primary wave I completed in Apr10 at SPX 1220. Its five Major waves unfolded as follows: Major 1 SPX 956 Jun09, Major 2 SPX 869 Jly09, Major 3 SPX 1150 Jan10, Major 4 SPX 1045 Feb10, and Major 5 SPX 1220 Apr10. Primary wave II then took three months and bottomed in Jly10 at SPX 1011. Since then Primary wave III has been underway. Thus far, Primary wave III has completed two of its Major waves: Major 1 SPX 1344 Feb11 and Major 2 SPX 1249 Mar11. Major wave 3 has been underway since that low and is already making new bull market highs. We continue to anticipate a bull market high in early 2012 after Primary waves III, IV and V complete.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1365
The Major wave 3 uptrend that started on March 16th at SPX 1249 has been underway for about a month and a half. This week it hit SPX 1365 a new bull market high. Since it is a Major wave it will divide into five Intermediate waves. The first two of these Intermediate waves have already concluded: Int. 1 SPX 1339 April 8th, and Int. wave 2 SPX 1295 April 18th. Intermediate wave three has been underway since that low. If we apply Fibonacci relationships to target a potential high for Intermediate wave three we arrive at two levels: SPX 1385 and 1441. At SPX 1385 Int. 3 = Int. 1, and at SPX 1441 Int. 3 = 1.618 Int. 1. It just so happens the next two OEW pivots, right after the current 1363/1372 resistance pivots, are 1386 and 1440. Near perfection! Our target for Major wave 3 remains between SPX 1440 and 1462 by June 2011.
SHORT TERM
Support for the SPX is at 1363 and then 1313, with resistance at 1372 and then 1386. Short term momentum continues to display a double negative divergence. Thus far Intermediate wave three has been fairly relentless. Since it began on April 18th at SPX 1295 the largest pullback, it was only seven points, occurred on April 25th. This market has rallied 70 points in 8 trading days with only a 7 point pullback along the way. Quite strong indeed and typical of a third, (Intermediate three), of a third, (Major wave 3), of a third, (Primary wave III). With short term momentum continuing to display a double negative divergence we would expect a pullback of at least 10 to maybe 20 points in the near future. The OEW 1363 pivot range has been our target for Minor wave 1 and the market is right there. After a Minor wave 2 pullback Minor waves 3, 4 and 5 would still be needed to complete Intermediate wave three. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets lost 1.5% on the week. Japan and China have switched roles recently. Japan’s NIKK is in a confirmed uptrend, and now China’s SSEC is in a confirmed downtrend.
European markets gained 2.1% on the week. Finally all five indices are in confirmed uptrends.
The Commodity equity group lost 0.8% on the week. All three indices remain in uptrends.
DJ World index continues to uptrend and gained 1.8% on the week.
COMMODITIES
Bonds gained 0.8% on the week. The long term trading range remains in place.
Crude continues to uptrend and gained 1.5% on the week to new uptrend highs.
Gold remains in its uptrend to new all time highs and gained 3.2% on the week. We are going to release a Silver report shortly.
The USD continues to downtrend losing 1.3% on the week.
NEXT WEEK
Quite a number of economic reports this week. On monday, Construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10:00. Then monthly Auto sales in the afternoon. Tuesday we have Factory orders, then on wednesday we have ADP and ISM services. Thursday, weekly Jobless claims and Productivity. Then on friday the monthly Payrolls report, Unemployment rate and Consumer credit. The FED has two speeches on the agenda. FED chairman Bernanke in Chicago on thursday, and FED vice chair Yellen in Finland on friday. Best to your week!
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
Hi Tony, I see you upgraded minor 1 …now in blue…minor 2 in process..max 20 points down….then we should see minor 3 starting to unfold…minor 1 was 1370-1295=75… if minor 2 goes to 1350 then a minor 3 possible target could be 1471 (1350+75*1.62) ?? ..but thats above the major 3 target….so should we expect more than 20 points correction for minor 2 ??
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MGD, The third waves during this bull market have not been all that (1.618) impressive. More along the lines of equal or less than wave 1. Was expecting a rally to the 1363 pivot, then pullback to 1344 breakout, then wave 3. So far rally to 1371 and now the largest pullback since SPX 1295.
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Thanks, what should be a crucial support ?..1295 or something higher ?
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1313
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“The third waves during this bull market have not been all that (1.618) impressive.”
Ain’t that da truth 🙂
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Every bull market has its own characteristics.
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Quick glance. 12 point PB biggest since 1290.25 Not bad.
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Hey H D
Smart$ selling to forced buyers and chasers in ES IMO today
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CL $111 is my leevot
well guys the day session is yours.
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That was a great entry last night! You were all over it! +1
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1342 is HWB between 1372 pivot and 1313 pivot. Just saying….

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Hey Tony
I wont get my feelings hurt if u delete most of my posts to make it easier for folks to read comments of others…my bad
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Hi Tony,
futures jumped on the news … http://www.cnbc.com/id/42852727
It looks spx will open at least 10-15 points up…so this take us to abt 1380 … so I wonder if this wave can still be minor 1 ??
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its going to be a wild day tomorrow……markets are loving this news!!
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Maybe they found a huge stash of silver at Osama’s hideout and now sell it at the Kabul open market?
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Ben B will buy it 🙂
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http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/osama-bin-laden-killed/story?id=13505703
what a day… es at highs ..be careful out there..sell the news ?
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I’m taking a shot…:)
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sorry bad joke 🙂 get it?
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Hey Lee, I see some symmetry at 1375 from 1290.25. I’m with ya. Small… FYI Margin now 30,075 for SI. Just the big dogs get to play at that park.. Enjoy.
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G1
I think he died of old age. How longs it been? Good just the same.
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H D
Small is the new Big 😛
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Best to play paper silver when it’s “buy high sell stupid” ands stupid ain’t over.
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Can someone pinch me so I know it’s just a nightmare?
I always thought the silver bull would correct in June big time and not now. Some commodities like cotton and copper starting to show weakness point to a narrowing and first sign of weakness but not the end yet… I hope.
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good evening
well if u liked SI @ 49 ur got to love it here 42.20 low trading 43’s >GL its trading 🙂
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wild open to May
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Indeed Tony
Lets keep the volatility in the markets and out of the weather !!! 🙂
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Still raining here.
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Hey Tony
I’ll be in ur hood the week of June 12th to visit my folks and friends.
The soil a.k.a clay 🙂 is usually starting to crack by then from drought and mid 90’s are the norm and the Bass will be jumpin in the boat 🙂
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We’ll see about clay cracking =)
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Patrick’s all over it on the daily $
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Well, unfortunately I’m not short even though it’s the internet and I am scared!!! Quite a nightmare and all you can do is hope it’s the C of 4.
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vorfahrt
Check out Patricks daily count on page 10 of Tony’s chart.
Volatile yes..but still in the pocket.
When a commodity triples as fast as SI did this is normal IMHO
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It may be normal but still very scary to me. Lots of people now in commodities that do not know about their volatility. Lots of newby-idiots like me. And the green 4 is still going on unfortunately. I wish I had your experience indeed.
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Totally agree with Lee. Keep tabs on Patrick’s count.
Awesome sunset on Lake Michigan this evening!
Cheers. Billy
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What is that $50 a $.01 per?
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Yes sir.
trades in 1/2 cent ticks
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$5,000 per 1 $
so only a $30,000 per 1 car so far sundays range high/low LOL
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sorry $35 grand 😛
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It’s an effing crime scene. People got murdered!
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H D
I think it might of left a mark on a few but it’s the internet u can always say u were short 🙂
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SIN1 hahaha
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2 bucks off the lows in SI
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and a touch off 3$ higher off lows 🙂
SI
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How low may it go from here?
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“Flash crash for silver
Silver, gold drop sharply, but volume reported light”
MarketWatch headine
well as long as volume is light I guess it really doesn’t matter.
Too manys chefs that’s all it was IMO
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The volume guys are funny. Nothing counts unless it has epic volume. I guess…….Was that a $5000 5 minute candle? I need to stop watching it or I might have a pavlovian response and click something.
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http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/osama-bin-laden-killed/story?id=13505703
What a day.. ES high 1373.50.. sell the news ?
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