SHORT TERM: market notches new highs, DOW +72
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower again. That’s everyday this week. Europe opened higher and closed +0.50%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP came in lower than expected: +1.8% vs +3.1%, and weekly Jobless claims came in higher: 429K vs 403K. Also at 8:30 FED governor Duke’s speech was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20110428a.htm. The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1354 but then began to rally. It had closed at SPX 1356 yesterday. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +5.1% vs +2.11%. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1359, and then it began to pullback again. The market then stayed in a SPX 1355-1359 trading range for most of the day until the last hour of trading when it broke out to the upside. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1362 then pulled back to close at 1360.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were +mixed. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold rose $10.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum continues to display a double negative divergence and remains overbought. Tomorrow, Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Then around 10:00 Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment. At 12:30 a speech from FED chairman Bernanke at the FED conference in Va.
The market spent most of the day consolidating, at overbought levels, after making new highs yesterday. That is until the last hour of trading when the SPX again made new bull markets highs. With the rally to SPX 1362 the market is now right at the OEW 1363 pivot while short term momentum continues to display a double negative divergence. Short term support is now at SPX 1345 and the 1313/1303 pivots, while resistance is still at 1363 and the 1372 pivots. Count remains the same. Tomorrow is end of week and end of month. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1362
LONG TERM: bull market
CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987
http://screencast.com/t/Y8wLKI0cwXEN
I’ve bought DBA today (mostly “stimulants”: coffee, cocoa, sugar plus cattle). Looks like it has good supp. and money flow right here Thanks everyone..Have a great weekend all!
LikeLike
looks like this gold push will end gold nano iii grey on patrick chart today as gold count has to catch up silver count now, silver is behaving weak. correct understanding?
LikeLike
Hi VMA, Makes sense.
LikeLike
His beard alone has experienced more than a lesser mans body
He tells the market when it can pull back
Stay thirsty my friends
LikeLike
NG
It’s what all the cool kids are trading now. 🙂
So whats the upside for NG $10 ?
LikeLike
Lee, that’s not just interesting, it’s very interesting…
and yes you are a “cool kid”, of course -if I remember correctly you told us already back in sept/Oct that you were telling folks to buy silver.. 🙂
LikeLike
Pivot time 🙂
LikeLike
NG? $15+
LikeLike
May I ask how you trade NG? Any ETF’s you would suggest? I absolutely despise using UNG.
LikeLike
Preston, futures and FCG.
LikeLike
Thanks Tony!
LikeLike
Tony, that’s a cool price also… 🙂
My fib calculator only allows it to go to $6 at this point 😦 I need more extensions…will have to call Sprint about that
Lee, what about ZC here? ..I thought that they’d cover that gap and it didn’t happen….again..
LikeLike
Any thoughts on shorting WTIC right here? I started a position buying DTO (2X Short Oil) and am thinking of buying more or moving on to something else. Are we close to Major Wave 3 high or is there another expected surge coming? Thanks!
LikeLike
FYI – This is for a short term trade. I’m aware of the $175 target, but was looking to short if we thought 113.97 was close to Major Wave 3, with a potential pullback to sub $100 oil (~$95-$96 target).
LikeLike
Selling SPY and INDL longs and going short right here on SPY (136.47) for a short term trade. GL everyone and have a great weekend!
LikeLike
thanks Preston!
LikeLike
waverookie, I don’t have any position related to oil right now, but understand that folks are watching 110.71 /114.98 levels. Hope that helps.
LikeLike
Thanks CB. I hold the current position and wait to add to the position (at least until I see that magic green 3 appear on the charts again) 🙂
LikeLike
Hi Tony, Dji minor 1 is now abt 77% of I1 (in abt 50% of the time)….could minor 1 be larger than I1 …?
LikeLike
MGD, This is Intermediate three, anything is possible.
LikeLike
If the target is 1440-1460 for P3 then we have already gained abt 55% of that range (1249-1440/1460) in abt 30 trading days …and we are just in minor 1 of I3 ?
LikeLike
MGD, Have not seen a pullback big enough to qualify it as a Minor 1.
LikeLike
Hi Tony. Still thinking 45ish on RIMM? Getting close after it got hammered after the close.
Thanks. Billy
LikeLike
Hi Billy, Yes but RIMM has been not acting good at all.
LikeLike
Lol, a few days posting cdo’s on oei, ecb worries about it.
“Dudes, were pimping with pomo those babys up”
It’s really that’s simple. Study over…
Dxy 72 handle, “winning”.
LikeLike
Hi Tony, the more i’m looking at the green c for SSEC, the more i’m confused. Where do you think Primary IV is likely headed to and about what timeframe?
LikeLike
Will be reviewing that chart and others this weekend. Check monday.
LikeLike
Hi Aaron,
Updated the SSEC charts.
Should be getting close to ending Primary IV
LikeLike
Thanks Tony, that’s beautiful! 🙂 I have this bullish count in mind too, but would you keep a bearish alternative in mind too? Is it also possible that since the oct’08 low, it is tracing a Major b contracting triangle, pending a breakdown for Major c to complete Primary IV?
LikeLike
Hi Aaron, That’s an acceptable count. cheers!
LikeLike
Tricky, but thanks 🙂
LikeLike