thursday update

SHORT TERM: market notches new highs, DOW +72

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower again. That’s everyday this week. Europe opened higher and closed +0.50%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP came in lower than expected: +1.8% vs +3.1%, and weekly Jobless claims came in higher: 429K vs 403K. Also at 8:30 FED governor Duke’s speech was released: The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1354 but then began to rally. It had closed at SPX 1356 yesterday. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported higher: +5.1% vs +2.11%. The rally continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1359, and then it began to pullback again. The market then stayed in a SPX 1355-1359 trading range for most of the day until the last hour of trading when it broke out to the upside. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1362 then pulled back to close at 1360.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were +mixed. Bonds gained 17 ticks, Crude added 10 cents, Gold rose $10.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum continues to display a double negative divergence and remains overbought. Tomorrow, Personal income/spending and PCE prices at 8:30. Then around 10:00 Chicago PMI and Consumer sentiment. At 12:30 a speech from FED chairman Bernanke at the FED conference in Va.

The market spent most of the day consolidating, at overbought levels, after making new highs yesterday. That is until the last hour of trading when the SPX again made new bull markets highs. With the rally to SPX 1362 the market is now right at the OEW 1363 pivot while short term momentum continues to display a double negative divergence. Short term support is now at SPX 1345 and the 1313/1303 pivots, while resistance is still at 1363 and the 1372 pivots. Count remains the same. Tomorrow is end of week and end of month. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1362

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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31 Responses to thursday update

  1. CB says:
    I’ve bought DBA today (mostly “stimulants”: coffee, cocoa, sugar plus cattle). Looks like it has good supp. and money flow right here Thanks everyone..Have a great weekend all!


  2. vmahambare says:

    looks like this gold push will end gold nano iii grey on patrick chart today as gold count has to catch up silver count now, silver is behaving weak. correct understanding?


  3. H D says:

    His beard alone has experienced more than a lesser mans body

    He tells the market when it can pull back

    Stay thirsty my friends :mrgreen:


  4. Lee X says:

    It’s what all the cool kids are trading now. 🙂
    So whats the upside for NG $10 ?


  5. waverookie says:

    Any thoughts on shorting WTIC right here? I started a position buying DTO (2X Short Oil) and am thinking of buying more or moving on to something else. Are we close to Major Wave 3 high or is there another expected surge coming? Thanks!


    • waverookie says:

      FYI – This is for a short term trade. I’m aware of the $175 target, but was looking to short if we thought 113.97 was close to Major Wave 3, with a potential pullback to sub $100 oil (~$95-$96 target).


  6. MGD says:

    Hi Tony, Dji minor 1 is now abt 77% of I1 (in abt 50% of the time)….could minor 1 be larger than I1 …?


  7. pbbilly says:

    Hi Tony. Still thinking 45ish on RIMM? Getting close after it got hammered after the close.

    Thanks. Billy


  8. zimbabweanimike says:

    Lol, a few days posting cdo’s on oei, ecb worries about it.
    “Dudes, were pimping with pomo those babys up”
    It’s really that’s simple. Study over…
    Dxy 72 handle, “winning”.


  9. lightbearer7 says:

    Hi Tony, the more i’m looking at the green c for SSEC, the more i’m confused. Where do you think Primary IV is likely headed to and about what timeframe?


Comments are closed.