wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market relatively quiet after FOMC meeting ends, DOW +96

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Durable goods orders were reported higher: +2.5% vs -0.6%. The market opened higher at SPX 1349 and drifted up to 1350 by 10:00. The SPX had closed at 1347 yesterday. After hitting yesterday’s high the market pulled back some to SPX 1344 by 11:00. With short term momentum back to neutral the market started to move higher. Around 12:30 the FOMC statement was released: The market rallied on the news hitting SPX 1351 by 2:00. The market started to drift lower when FED chairman Bernanke gave the first regularly scheduled FED press conference. During the conference the FED released their projections: After touching SPX 1348 around 2:30 the market resumed its rally. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1357 then pulled back to close at 1356.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds lost 3 ticks, Crude gained $1.15, Gold rallied $24.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum was extremely overbought, pulled back to neutral today, and then turned higher to overbought again. Tomorrow, the Q1 GDP and weekly Jobless claims at 8:30. Then Pending home sales at 10:00. Also tomorrow, a speech from FED governor Duke at a FED conference in Va. at 8:30.

After an early retest of the bull market high at SPX 1350 the market had a minor pullback to 1344 by 11:00. Then for the rest of the day the market moved higher without much volatility despite it being FOMC day. Heading into the close the SPX hit a new bull market high at 1357, within the OEW 1363 pivot range. The short term target for Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave three has been this pivot. The SPX is now displaying a double negative divergence at today’s high on the hourly chart, and the daily has moved into overbought territory. Maybe we are getting close to a Minor wave 2 (15-20 point) pullback. Remember, even after any pullback we still have Minor waves 3, 4 and 5 to go to complete this uptrend. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1357

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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20 Responses to wednesday update

  1. CB says:

    anyone think tthat this wheat (and Russia) sell-off is overdone ?
    I am buying a little bit here 🙂


  2. Lee X says:

    SI trading is almost getting too easy 🙂


  3. pooch77 says:

    If I may ask what is Patrick’s high for silver into early June?tia


  4. Lee X says:

    The death toll from these storms is heart breaking. Almost 200 dead now this month.


  5. My observation is that the market usually pulls back on the day following the FOMC day. Thus, if the history is any guide, I will expect some sort of pullback today.


  6. Lee X says:

    Good call on the 2x neg div Tony
    And your pivots are ok also 😉


  7. hooloo1957 says:

    one more tony, thanks, this is probably proprietary, excuse me if it is, but when Patrick writes in the nano and micro waves on the silver daily, with what degree of confidence can he do that or will there be massive revisions later after the fact? thanks


    • x0521 says:

      The short and long term forecast/label for gold has been amazingly accurate. However, the near term counts/labels change frequently for many other items posted here. The shorter the more likely to change. If you attempt to use the green “tenative” counts, use some form of risk mangement. Tony’s longer term projections are extremely valuable. GL


  8. H D says:

    S&P’s too slow for ya?


  9. hooloo1957 says:

    hey tony, dont you think the final targets in the aussie and canadian are too close for a top in 2012? thanks so much


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