USD DXY index update

The last time we posted anything extensive on the USD was in November: https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/the-usd-index-dxy/. Since then we have continued to monitor the USD and the other major currencies in relation to our larger currency cycle work.

Our long term targets have not changed. We are still expecting a significant low in 2012 around the mid to upper 60’s DXY. Then a rally into 2013, followed by a retest of that low in 2014. The 2012 low should complete Primary wave A, the 2013 rally Primary B, then the retest Primary C, the end of Cycle [C] and the Supercycle bear market. What should then follow is a spectacular five year bull market when the DXY should double by 2019.

Recently the USD completed a zigzag Major wave A, of Primary A, from DXY 89.62 to 74.23 in 2009. A simple Major wave B followed to 88.71 in 2010. Now Major wave C, another zigzag, has been underway since the late spring of 2010. The current downtrend, Intermediate wave C, may subdivide into five Minor waves as it declines into the final Primary wave A low in 2012.

To track the USD/DXY along with us just use the following link: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987&cmd=show[s67199594]&disp=O. Best your your trading/investing!

About tony caldaro

Investor
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12 Responses to USD DXY index update

  1. Pingback: Foreign currency and USD update | the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

  2. apostolis68 says:

    Hi Tony,
    So the target (top) for euro/$ is about 1.65-1.70?

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  3. gselsidi says:

    Tony,

    What do you expect to happen to the markets when this dollar rally happens? The time frame you give coincides with your new Bull market for equities. Do you think the US markets will rise along with the dollar?

    Elsid

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  4. zimbabweanimike says:

    http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=17
    $ same as spx. Woa twice nas.
    Tax lady was unimpressed when I tried notional aspect. Gl
    Have a great weekend T and all.

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  5. trader66 says:

    Tony, did the I3 started in your opinion? Thanks.

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  6. selhai says:

    Tony,

    Hope you don’t mind, but this is about the SPX, not the greenback.

    Since last year, you’ve been very clear about this being a bull market, with Primary 5 targetting around the all-time high in ’07. As a result, I have been assuming that the FTSE-100 would similarly approach its 6,950 ATH, hit back in 1999. Indeed, given the 4.5:1 SPX/FTSE ratio, 1,576 x 4.5 = 7,092. (But the ratio has been decreasing in recent months).

    You probably have pencilled in where you envision the SPX heading after Primary 5 tops out (?). I was wondering whether you could consider some broadbrush comment on that? – I’m beginning to think about whether I should be selling some or all of my FTSE blue chips come Q1 2012, or whenever. What size/shape correction might you have in mind, for example, applying the Rule of Alternation? And thereafter?

    Anything you can say would be greatly appreciated, of course, either in the weeks ahead, or later in the year, if I’m guilty of jumping the gun. Many thanks.

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  7. zimbabweanimike says:

    Dxy at 60! Chinaman and dept holders would understand default. That would also translate to 8 -12 buck gas. Cool should be able to get across town faster and alot safer.
    Oh and any pimpled kid could trounce BO in 12.

    It makes sence, a failed auction remote, yet $ collapse firmly possible. That’s Liesbag momo anyway:)
    Good work T.

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