monday update

SHORT TERM: early market rally ends near highs, DOW +96

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures started lower overnight but turned positive heading into today’s trading. At 8:30 Personal income was reported higher: +1.0% vs +0.4%, Personal spending was reported positive: +0.2% vs +0.7%, as were PCE prices +0.1% vs +0.0%. The market opened higher at SPX 1323 and continued to rally. It had closed at SPX 1320 on friday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 71.2 vs 68.8, then at 10:00 Pending home sales were reported lower: -2.8% vs +2.0%. The market continued higher until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 1329. A nice rebound from thursday’s afternoon low of SPX 1294. After the high for the day, and an overbought short term condition, the market started to pullback. Around 2:00 the SPX hit 1321, and then rallied into the close to end the day at 1327.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +065%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude lost 95 cents, Gold rose $5.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1313 and then 1303, with resistance at 1363 and then 1372. Short term momentum hit overbought this morning, pulled back some and was rising into the close. Tomorrow, Construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10:00, then monthly Auto sales in the afternoon. Also at 10:00 FED chairman Bernanke gives Congressional testimony.

For the past three trading days uptrending Crude has stayed under $100 and the market has enjoyed a good rally from SPX 1294 to 1329. The SPX 1294 low was accompanied by a short term positive RSI divergence on the hourly chart. Today’s SPX 1329 high displayed a near extreme overbought condition on the same chart. One good trading signal after another.

When there has been weakness into the end of the month, during this uptrend, the pattern has been for strong buying in the beginning of the following month. Needless to state the beginning of March is tomorrow. Over the next few days we should get a good idea if this uptrend will continue, or shift into a confirmed downtrend is next. The situation in N. Africa and the Middle East will likely have an important influence, one way or the other. Short term OEW charts remain positive with support at SPX 1320, and then the 1313 and 1303 pivots below that. Short term resistance is at SPX 1344, and the 1363 and 1372 pivots above that. We’ve added another SPX uptrend alternate count, remaining objective, and posted it on the NDX daily chart. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend stable

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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35 Responses to monday update

  1. tb45 says:

    Hey Tony,
    Have been admiring your work for the past several years!
    After the dust settles, would you review the “SPX Bull market prediction” post that you posted in Sept, 2010 and adjust if needed?


  2. Lee X says:

    pivot time ESH @ 1303


  3. zimbabweanimike says:

    No safety in bonds! Bucky flat.
    Another cnbc analast busted. It’s the new normal.


  4. MGD says:

    Now 1320 and 1313 have been brocken then Sell, Sell, Sell….are we playing yo-yo ?


  5. H D says:

    Looks like 4th down in terminal pattern stop at yesterdays low. GL


  6. Lee X says:

    ESH opened right at the 76.40 from last weeks low1292.50 to year high 1343
    @1331.00 GL today !


  7. zimbabweanimike says:

    Hey gls, how bout those pms.

    No clue on witch confeddi outperforms. Gl
    Good to see ya back.

    On another note just figured curent yield on spx.
    122.15 ~ 1.71 = 71.42
    No need to be postless. This crazy stuff makes makes every one smart and dumb. 🙂


  8. lemosbrasil says:

    Hi Tony

    There is a trendline of MACD from july to DOW JONES has been respected. Few minutes ago, I put the chart im my blog :

    Tony, this trendline of MACD produce a triangle with a horizontal line from July too.

    So, to me , we will go to uptrend until the top of this “MACD triangle”. But i dont know where do we go; if until 12.800 or 13.200 to DOW JONES

    This trendline must be cut in middle april.; probabily with a rough correction.

    Tony what do you think about this “MACD Resource ” ?


  9. glsgls says:

    Hello all.

    Short EURO here at 1.3820 stop at 1.3865

    Perfect, perfect set up. Impulse down off the high last night. Zigzag back up. Darn it, this should be a winner.


    • glsgls says:

      Last night’s high could have been the end of a “b” expanded flat that started in late November. The “iv” of “c” up took awhile but I think it is ok rule wise.

      If it doesn’t work, I will keep quiet again.


    • H D says:

      +1 hey GLS


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