thursday update

SHORT TERM: market drifts lower, DOW -16

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened higher, but closed -0.80%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims dropped under 400K for the first time in nearly two and a half years: 388K vs 420K. The market opened slightly lower at SPX 1259. It had closed at SPX 1260 yesterday. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 68.6 vs 62.5 and the market drifted up to SPX 1261. Soon after the market started to drift lower. At 10:00 Pending home sales were reported positive: +3.5% vs +10.4%. The market continued lower until around noon when the SPX hit 1256. After that the market drifted higher until about 3:30 when it hit SPX 1260. Then it pulled back some to close at SPX 1258. Another quiet day.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.20%. Bonds lost 60 ticks, Crude slid $1.70, Gold lost $8.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1240 and then 1222, with resistance at 1261 and then 1291. Short term momentum hit oversold this morning and then bounced. Tomorrow, WLEI and the weekly Monetary readings.

The market continued to trade in a narrow range today. The short term negative divergence in momentum yesterday has only generated seven SPX points to the downside (SPX 1263-1256). This pullback is similar to the previous two pullbacks of 6 and 8 points. Tomorrow is end of month, quarter and year. This might create some small volatility in the daily range. Last year, after a quiet two weeks, the market moved in the last hour of trading to complete a pullback. We could possibly get a repeat. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high SPX 1263

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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18 Responses to thursday update

  1. zimbabweanimike says:

    China min wage goes up 33 percent. Based on a monthly wage. 174$
    Starting on the 1st..
    But they get there istuff for 50$..employee


  2. gselsidi says:

    Tony, quick question how do you calculate your pivots? Regular method weekly or monthly? Or is it your own method?



  3. H D says:

    What time is it? In the world.
    Been Up, been Down
    Twenty ten! what a spin
    Obama- yo momma!
    Saved the market, still a farceur?
    No fear, let’s cheer
    Tony called it all year.
    Rally feels good
    Bulls have wood
    My friends
    Here’s to life- a beer.
    A toast, to a new year.


  4. CB says:

    Tony, thanks for sharing your knowledge and time with us! You are a great inspiration to all of us.
    And many thanks to all of our trading friends here! You guys are sooo talented and fun to be around! Happy New Year everyone!
    SPX daily – offset MAs. – close but no cigar territory.


  5. glsgls says:

    Any night traders out there? Short at 1255.25. There was a five wave move up on the 5 minute from just before 11:oo to just before 3:00 Central.. That may be a “c” wave.
    Then an impulse down. Think we are finishing an “abc” back up. Why I am I doing this?

    Stop at 156.25.


    • glsgls says:

      Raised stop to 1257.25. Misread the wave.


      • glsgls says:

        Lowered stop to 1253.25 to ensure profit and also if this is a “iii” of somehting small it shouldn’t get that high. If it does get up there I don’t have a good short term count.

        Happy New Year Tony and everybody. Thanks for the blog.


  6. x0521 says:

    Tony, interesting observation re: 2009. Noticed that too. 45 point range in dec 09′, the 15 point pullback was slightly below e13 to 1115 from 1130. The current e13 sits at 1249, near the 124x pivot area. The 124x area was critical support in the 2006 march to 1300+. As long as your time frame is beyond the immediate hour or day, pullbacks should be bought. Thanks.


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