friday update

SHORT TERM: Q3 GDP +2.0%, DOW +5

Overnight the Asian markets were mostly lower. Europe opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 the Q3 GDP was reported higher: +2.0% v  +1.7%. The market opened lower at SPX 1181, bounced to 1184, and then pulled back to 1180 by 10:00. Near 10:00 the Chicago PMI was reported slightly higher: 60.6% v 60.4%, and the UofM Consumer sentiment was reported slightly lower: 67.7 v 67.9. The market then tried to rally, and by 10:30 it hit SPX 1185. Yet another pullback to SPX 1180 occurred by 12:00. After that pullback the market started to make some upside progress. Yet, SPX 1185 continued to offer resistance today and the market closed at 1183.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 15 ticks, Crude lost 80 cents, Gold rallied $15.00 and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1176 and then 1168, with resistance at 1187 and then 1222. Short term momentum stayed around neutral in the morning and then edged higher in the afternoon, but ended at neutral. Last night the FED reported the M1 multiplier downticked for the week, and the Monetary base upticked. Today the WLEI was reported slightly higher: 43.5% v 43.1%, but Public sentiment dipped: 32.7% v 32.9%.

Today the market reacted to the Q3 GDP number by remaining on pause – no reaction. The entire range for the week was monday’s new uptrend high at SPX 1196 and wednesday’s morning low at 1172. And, the SPX closed each day at 1186, 1186, 1182, 1184 and 1183. This does not look like a topping process. It looks more like a consolidation after rallying through the two, seasonally, worse months of the year – September and October. Meanwhile the NDX continues to move higher and is now less than 5% below its 2007 high. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987