monday update

SHORT TERM: market ekes out higher high in quiet trading, DOW -48

Overnight the Asian markets were all higher. Europe opened higher but closed -0.40%. US index futures were slightly lower overnight. At the open the market slipped lower to SPX 1148. It had closed at SPX 1149 on friday. During the first hour the SPX drifted down to 1144, within the range of the OEW 1146 pivot. Then for the next hour the market traded between 1144 and 1148. At 1:00 the SPX started drifting higher, and then rallied to eke out a new uptrend high at SPX 1150 around 3:00. Then it slid lower for the last hour down to SPX 1142 and closed there.

 

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 25 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold was flat, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX slips to 1136 and then 1107, with resistance at 1146 and then 1168. Short term momentum pulled back from slightly overbought on friday to neutral, rose, and then headed even lower into the close. Tomorrow, Case-Shiller home prices at 9:00, then Consumer confidence at 10:00.

 

The market traded sideways for most of the day. Then eked out a new uptrend high at SPX 1150 an hour before the close. After that the market pulled back hitting its lowest level of the day at SPX 1142. Not much to report on this quiet trading day. It is possibile that the market just completed, at SPX 1150, Minute wave one of Minor wave 3. We’ll need to see some follow through tomorrow to clarify this potential. Only the shortest term of the OEW charts triggered a wave. A restest of the OEW 1136 pivot would likely trigger a longer term level. Today’s high of SPX 1150 matched exactly the high of Major wave 3 in Jan10. Best to your trading! 

 

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987