friday update

SHORT TERM: pullback continues on gap down opening, DOW -1
Overnight all the Asian markets were lower. Europe opened lower but closed mixed. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 Q2 GDP was reported +2.4% v +3.7%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1092. It had closed at SPX 1102 yesterday. Within minutes the SPX hit 1088, found support at the OEW 1090 pivot, and then started to rally. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported higher: 62.3 v 59.1, and at 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported higher as well: 67.8 v 66.5. The rally continued until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 1104. Then it started to drift lower. Around 2:00 the SPX hit 1095 and then turned higher. In the last hour of trading the SPX hit its best level of the day at 1106 and then eased back to close at 1102.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%. Bonds were up 23 ticks, Crude was up 55 cents, Gold rallied $15.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1090 and then 1058, with resistance at 1107 and then 1136. Short term momentum again touched oversold this AM, which it has been doing since tuesday. Overnight the FED reported the Adjusted Monetary Base pulled back some in the past two weeks. Today the WLEI slipped a bit further to 39.3% v 39.5%, and Public sentiment improved a bit to 32.8% v 31.5%.
Today’s gap down opening and then subsequent low at SPX 1088 created an overlap between the 1089 rally high for Minor wave 1 and this pullback. This suggests the rally from SPX 1065 to 1121, this week, was Minute wave one of Minor wave 3. We have noted this count on the SPX/DOW hourly charts. Reviewing the technicals of this July rally. We now have 8 of 13 foreign indices, 5 of 9 SPX sectors, the DOW/TRAN/NYA, and the NYAD (market breadth) all in confirmed uptrends. Expecting the other indices to join in this uptrend in early August. Best to your weekend!  
MEDIUM TERM: DOW in confirmed uptrend, awaiting SPX
LONG TERM: bull market

About tony caldaro

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8 Responses to friday update

  1. tony says:

    Time Out,The FTSE and the DOW have quite similar patterns.


  2. Jman says:

    warnings signs are already showing up in $NYSI/$NYA$NYA made little progress while $NYSI kept climblingif that keep happening, this market will top out sometime in Aug for sure[s205343686]&disp=P


  3. Time says:

    It may bounce a 30-40 point more with the general market but looks like it is done. Yesterday when all the market rallied with the US mkt reversal, FTSE stayed -ve It has made a half hearted bounce since the mkt closed but at a imporant juncture now. Like to have your views on my analysis.


  4. Time says:

    Hi Tony, I follow your blog everyday and am quite impressed with your mkt assessment. I read few days back hat FTSE is in uptrend and bit puzzled. The trendlines indicate that it is still in downtrend shortterm as well as long term. Currently it looks like it has put in its top and is on its way down.


  5. tony says:

    X,Strong moves in the commodities, and commodity equity group too.FSLR sold off on lower guidance and a higher Euro.Gold could bounce further after Ops-Ex last week, then resume downtrend.


  6. x says:

    Tony,FSLR II confirmed. Pretty big gap down. I have stayed away at this point but really think long term this has some upside,..Thanks.


  7. x says:

    Tony, Evidence continues to mount: china and ags showing strength: brazil strong and possibly oil may push thru the $80 level. Is gold attempting an oversold bounce, then a push lower in later August? I assume the euro may top when gold bottoms. This seems the currentpattern. Thanks.


  8. MG says:

    The selloff was delayed once again. I am counting the following waves. a (low of june 7th), b (high o june 21st),c/A (low of July 1st), B (high of july 27th). Wave C may be underway. Monday at the open the market shouldnegate or confirm this count


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