thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded, DOW -31
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher but closed -0.40%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims showed a slight improvement: 457k v 464k. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1111, after following Europe higher overnight. The surge continued in the opening minutes as the SPX hit 1116, and the DOW made new rally highs. The SPX had closed at 1106 yesterday. That, however, was the high for the day as the market started to pullback. Just after 11:00 the market closed the opening gap and continued lower. Without as much as a five point bounce the SPX traded down to 1093 by 12:00. Then from the most oversold short term condition in nearly two weeks, and finding support at the OEW 1090 pivot, the market started to rally. At 2:00 the FED made the following press release: The rally hit its high at SPX 1107 just before 3:30 and the market then pulled back in the last half hour to close at SPX 1102.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.60%. Bonds gained 12 ticks, Crude rallied $1.30, Gold added $5.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1090 and then 1058, with resistance at 1107 and then 1136. Short term momentum was quite oversold today and started to rise to around neutral. Tomorrow, Q2 GDP at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, and Consumer sentiment at 10:00.
This morning the market gapped up like it was ready to resume this rally. The DOW made a new rally high but the SPX did not, falling five points short at 1116. The market then started to pullback, and steadily declined taking out yesterday’s SPX 1103 low on its way to 1093. At that low the SPX had pulled back 28 points (2.5%) from the 1121 high. This compares favorably with the Minor wave two 24 point pullback from SPX 1089 to 1065 (2.2%). Currently, our short term OEW charts are suggesting a Minor 1-2-3-4 from the Intermediate wave two low at SPX 1057. This, however, is not being confirmed by all of the charts only the two shorter term timeframes. So we continue to label the recent SPX 1121 high as either Minor 3 of Intermediate three, or Minute one of Minor 3. Currently, the market needs to rally above the OEW 1107 pivot to turn the short term charts positive again. Best to your trading!  
MEDIUM TERM: DOW in uptrend, awaiting SPX uptrend confirmation
LONG TERM: bull market

About tony caldaro

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42 Responses to thursday update

  1. Jman says: this keep up, markets will peak at some point, but when?history shows it is possible for markets to rise even if $NYSI were not rising, but markets not rising while $NYSI moves up is another red flaganyway, i just added these 2 charts to my public list lately and wanted to share[s205341832]&disp=P


  2. Igor says:

    I\’ve made corrections to my post regarding Tony\’s count of the last rally from July 20: Taking into account that wave ii is more complex and more time consuming than wave 2 one degree higher I would consider alternative variants also. Just my personal opinion.


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