SHORT TERM: uptrend makes new highs then pulls back, DOW +5
Last night FED vice chairman Kohn gave a speech in N. Carolina: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20100324a.htm. Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed +1.20%. US index futures were also higher overnight and at 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 442K v 457K. The market opened higher and hit a new uptrend high at SPX 1177 in the first few minutes. This opening rally was followed by a pullback to SPX 1170 by 10:00. At this time FED chairman Bernanke’s Congressional testimony was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20100325a.htm. The market started to rally. Around 1:00 the SPX hit 1181 a new uptrend high. Then from a fairly good overbought condition the market started to pullback. Around 3:00 the SPX traded down to 1171, tried to rally but only hit 1175, then rolled over again into the close to end the day at SPX 1166.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds continued their slide down 13 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold added $1.00 and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX now slips down to 1146 and then 1136, with resistance at 1168 and 1176. Short term momentum was overbought around noon and then pulled back in the afternoon to oversold. Tomorrow, a Q4 GDP revision at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10:00. At 11:30 FED governor Warsh gives a speech on FED independence in NYC. Then at 6PM FED governor Tarullo gives a speech in Wash, DC.
The uptrend hit SPX 1181 this morning but did not clear the OEW 1176 pivot. With the USD continuing to rally and Bonds continuing to fall the stock market started to pullback. In the last hour the pullback gained momentum and the SPX hit 1165 in the last few minutes. This 16 point decline from SPX 1181 to 1165 is within the range of the four previous pullbacks (14 to 26 points) during this uptrend. Should the OEW 1168 pivot fail to hold support a pullback to the 1146 pivot would be likely. Intermediate wave one would then have concluded at today’s high and Intermediate wave two would be underway. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend hits new high at SPX 1181
LONG TERM: bull market