wednesday update

SHORT TERM: uptrend hit SPX 1170, DOW +48
Overnight all the Asian markets were higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.65%. US index futres were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the PPI was reported negative (?): -0.6% v +1.4%. At 8:00 FED chairman Bernanke’s testimony was released: The market opened relatively unchanged from yesterday’s SPX 1159 close but immediately started to rally. At 10:00 the FED issued the following press release: Approaching 1:30 the SPX hit 1170 with nothing more than a two point pullback during the rally. After a failed attempt at 2:30 to go higher the market started to pullback. At 3:00 the FED released director Greenlee’s testimony ahead of time: They have been doing this sort of pre-release lately. Around 3:30 the SPX hit 1163 and then bounced higher to close at 1166.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds added 2 ticks, Crude rallied $1.00, Gold slipped $3.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1146 and then 1136, with resistance at 1168 and then 1176. Short term momentum was quite overbought at today’s highs and then backed off. Tomorrow, weekly Jobless claims at 8:30 along with the CPI and the Current account deficit. Then at 10:00 Leading indicators and the Philly FED. Also at 10:00 FED director Greenlee gives his Congressional testimony. Remember friday is Options expiration. 
Today’s rally carried the SPX above the 1168 pivot and then eased back some into the close. This rally continues despite the very extreme overbought reading on the SPX daily chart at 96.54. I had to go back to 1995 to find a daily RSI 5 reading this high: on Sept 14 1995 it hit 98.08. Then the SPX was about one month along in an eventual four month uptrend. Certainly this market can experience a pullback at just about any time. We continue to maintain the same short term count on the SPX/DOW hourly charts. There are, however, a couple of slightly alternate counts that could come into play in the coming days. Ops-ex next. Best to your trading! 
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend hits SPX 1170
LONG TERM: bull market
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About tony caldaro

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69 Responses to wednesday update

  1. x says:

    Tony, Thanks. Always like to get a different perspective to challenge my thinking. It would appear other commodites may be better near term bets but this (soft ags) will have its day in the future. I need to declare defeat on Nat Gas. I didn\’t take a position and will not since 4.3x was taken out. I may look at some equities surrounding nat gas if it continues to get clobbered. Long Nat Gas just seems like standing in front of a freight train right now. Interesting action is silver and gold. Best regards.


  2. tony says:

    Hi X,GKX looks like it might be making a medium term bottom.Only one of the commodity sectors not uptrending.May go sideways this year as you noted.


  3. Impulsive says:

    gls, ain\’t that the truth? Now the Johnny come lately…They are sheep.


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