SHORT TERM: market ends lower in last hour selling, DOW -120
Overnight all the Asian markets were higher. Europe opened higher but closed mixed. US index futures were relatively flat overnight, and at 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims were reported: 432K v 454K. The market opened slightly higher to SPX 1128. After trading in a two point range for about one half hour the market headed lower. Just before 11:30 the Chicago PMI was revised lower from yesterday’s report: 58.7 v 60.0. The PMI readings for the previous three months were also reported lower. Around 11:30 the SPX hit yesterday’s low at 1122. Heading into 3:00 the market stayed within a one point range. Then in the last hour, from SPX 1123, the market pulled back into the close to end the week, month and year at SPX 1115. For the day the SPX/DOW were -1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.00%. Bonds lost 16 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rose $3.00, and the USD was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1107 and then 1090, with resistance at 1133 and then 1168. Short term momentum was getting extremely oversold at the close. Tomorrow the new year holiday.
We have been counting this rally from SPX 1086 as an anticipated five wave structure: Wave 1 SPX 1116, Wave 2 SPX 1094, Wave 3 SPX 1130 and Wave 4 underway. Today’s last hour pullback pushed the SPX to 1115, slightly overlapping the Wave 1 high on an hourly basis. This five wave rally is starting to get a bit sloppy. Todays 13 SPX point trading range ended the six day streak of tight (6 points or less) trading ranges. The market seemed to come alive in the last hour after a two week rest. Monday should be an interesting opening. In the mean time we wish all of you and yours a healthy and happy new year.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market rally
Happy New Year to all!And thank you for contributing to this public blog.You all have certainly helped countless others during the year.
3-01-08 Low of 643.28 $RUT to Dec 2009 High its 21 trading months.It would be expected to have the Counter trend force of 21 be a high….. same with 21 day or 21 hour… Dec 2009 cycle using 21 Fib mystery ratio we get 21 month high for Dec 2009….So another cycle pattern… suggests jan 2010 will be down…..
3-01-08 Low of 643.28 If $RUT reaches above 643.28 … Monthly Chart…. this would change the Elliott Wave Cout for some. But 2000 $RUT highs… which we are currently at…. seems to me to be the end of this low volume attack by the Bulls.
Special Note: Low on 3-1-09 $RUT of 643.28…. Dec 2009 $RUT tried to entered this area… It reached 635.99 … Thats only 7.29 points away…. But it effects the Elliott Wave Pattern If it reaches this mark of 643.28…
Observe Monthly $RUT Bars… From 3-01-09 to 12-31-09 we have 10 month run up… with 8 New Monthly Closes as of Dec 31-09Dec 2009 closed at New closing high…. Making the Fib 8th close. Perfect Match.Observe 3-01-2000 Period Jan $RUT reached these levels before in Jan 2000. Then quickly reverse course for the next 3 months.Observe Dec 2009 closing Price on Monthly Bar… compared to the previous last three months… They wanted to bring it up to make one more closing high on monthly timeframe…the 8th… to do it..they had to decrease the trading volume… The market wanted to sell off before Dec 2009… observe the closing bar on monthly timeframe… Dec 2009 close was at the upper ranges on the monthly. The key here is… Low volume… Why? Tax reasons of course… plus, marketing reasons… the end of the year, the public has to fund their 401 ect… Wall street wants Dec 2009 to look appealing to those investors… With 8th New month close.. Fib Match…. given the overbought levels… Candlestick Pattern on Monthly Bar… Odds favor Jan Candlestick bar will be bearish candlestick.21 trading in Jan 2010. By the end of the month, odds favor $RUT will be much lower in my book.