monday update

SHORT TERM: market consolidates after hitting SPX 1130, DOW +27
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed +0.80%. US index futures were flat overnight. At the open the market edged higher and then hit a new uptrend high at SPX 1130 in the first few minutes. After hitting an extremely short term overbought condition the market started to pullback. By 11:00 the SPX had drifted down to 1127. It then traded within a one SPX point range for three hours before drifting down to 1124 by 2:30. Around that time the FED issured the following press release: Then the market rallied a few points heading into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.35%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude gained 65 cents, Gold added $3.00, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1107 and then 1090, with resistance at 1133 and then 1168. Short term momentum was extremely overbought early this morning and declined past neutral during the day. Tomorrow at 9:00 Case-Shiller home prices, and then at 10:00 Consumer confidence.
The market continued to extend its rally from the SPX 1086 low on Dec 9th, and the wave 2 low at SPX 1094 on Dec 18th. Today the SPX moved closer to the OEW 1133 pivot level when hitting 1130. The market clearly appears to be running into some short term resistance at this pivot. And, it does look like this pivot should hold for all of wave 3. Thus far, this five wave rally displays the following charteristics: wave one 30 SPX points, wave two 22 SPX points, and wave three 36 SPX points. Wave three is already longer than wave one, which allows wave five plenty of room to reach the targeted OEW pivot range at SPX 1168. Best to your trading, and happy holidays!  
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend new high SPX 1130
LONG TERM: bear market rally

About tony caldaro

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42 Responses to monday update

  1. Unknown says:


  2. MAKIORI says:

    GS has broken the daily down trend channel from OCT 14-NOV2-Nov12. But it has done so just by moving laterally with very small movement over all. I am keeping my short but I have moved my stop down to 168.5 ummmmmmalso still short esh0 @1116 from few days agohave a good evening


  3. ted says:

    SPX 5 day chart


  4. Roger says:

    Sorry for the color there. I\’m no fan of Greenspan or Bernanke.Roger


  5. CB says:

    Roger Dwrote: What a bunch of dumbshits. …Roger, thank you for that. I really needed to hear this. Anyways, looks like my free speech quota for today has been exhausted, so I\’ll just shut up right now and leave you guys with something funny


  6. Jason says:

    Happy Holidays everyone. Thanks for all the interesting reads and perspectives and counts. It is much appreciated. Also, thanks for all your hard work, Tony, and I wish you the best New Year.Last year we basically went up 6 straight days in the new year transition. I remember because I was short–only to get stopped out. But that rally spilled into the new year. If we trend higher two days into the new year that would make 11 days in a row of higher trade (including today and the next two days). I guess someone had another quarter to put in the "slot machine" to make this thing extend.Small triangles all over the place right now, implying 4th waves? That means another push higher…at least that has been the pattern since Nov. 2!


  7. CB says:

    Roger, why do you have to pick on the strongest stock. Pick on Barrick.. at least you\’ll tick off A….


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