thursday update

SHORT TERM: Santa rally continues, DOW +54
Overnight all the Asian markets were higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.60%. US index futures were slightly higher overnight, and at 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims were reported: 452K v 480K. The market opened slightly higher reaching a new uptrend high at SPX 1126 by 10:00. At this time Durable goods orders were reported: +0.2% v -0.6%. After that the market stayed in a very tight range right closing near at the high. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.85%. Bonds were off 13 ticks, Crude gained 70 cents, Gold rallied $12.00 and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1107 and then 1090, with resistance at 1133 and then 1168. Short term momentum moved up to overbought again during todays rally. Tomorrow, markets are closed for the Christmas holiday.
After the gap up on monday the SPX drifted higher for the rest of the week. Looks like this type of activity should continue into January. Best to you and yours in this holiday season!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend makes new high at SPX 1126
LONG TERM: bear market rally
Love oneself, or love oneself and all others. It’s a choice.
Your future depends on it. Time is short. Make the choice!

About tony caldaro

Investor
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32 Responses to thursday update

  1. Roger says:

    Puddy & Victor,I think Tony has the right outlook for UST yields…up. If I\’m reading Tony\’s analysis correct,bullish on Gold,bearish the USD,bearish equities.Where we part company so to speak, is I see a deflationary enviroment and his opinion is the opposite. What this amounts to as I am medium term bullish on the USD, bullish on yields,very bearish on equities and gold declines maybe 50 pct here.Very briefly, I see the money supply rolling over and the M1 multiplier falling to .50 or below as yields spike and stocks collapse. With the next phase of deleverging in the economy deflation takes hold in the primary C or P3 time frame. The USD will rally hard as the USD carry trade unwinds. The rise in yeilds will destabilise the housing market further and then hit the banking system again.Once the upside down debt pyramid unwinds, world leaders at some point conclude that the monetary system is unworkable and gold rises to reflect a new fixed system based on a basket of gold or a system that will restore confidence and discipline. The world will demand it.This could take years or happen within say 5 years. Will live in the 21st century and America will not lead society down a altogether destructive path. I far as I\’m concerned the sooner this floating rate system goes the better.Cheers,Roger

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  2. tony says:

    Thank you all for your contributions to the blog.You all have certainly helped more people than you can imagine.Happy holidays!

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  3. tony says:

    Hi X,Mentioned the AUD is the weekend update, but not in detail.Have been expecting a correction into the 77.24 – 82.37 range.Quite oversold now, should bounce first.

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  4. tony says:

    Hi X,Scaled into black gold during the tail end of the correction.It continues to act well during trading hours and overnight too.

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  5. tony says:

    Welcome Brazil!Just posted about your market this weekend.Agree, Big Red was a machine. Was at Belmont that day in 1973.happy holidays!

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  6. tony says:

    Welcome Red Dragon!Yes this uptrend has been quite relentless.happy holidays!

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  7. Puddy says:

    Roger, whether or not that is the best place to draw the line for a H+S it is clearly in the resistance zone. One of the potential wave counts would look like a breakout and then a retest of that area, followed by a measured move higher. Obviously there are other counts that work at this point as well but Tony has a cycle marking for December and I have no reason to disagree with that. Doesn\’t mean the 3\’s cant be revisited. I have a small position short the long bond that I\’m trying to decide what to do with. 😉

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  8. Vitor Hugo says:

    Roger: Wow… we´re quite there at the neckline. How long do you think it will take to trigger this iHS pattern?Red Dragon Leo: Your assessment is logic. Rally on the spx may go on till it reach the 61.8% Fibo correction and therefore a long time to go before the turning point. Market is still bullish and still shows strenght to go further.

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  9. Roger says:

    Here\’s the catalyst for my highly provacative view.Rogerhttp://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/cfe62314-422e-46aa-a860-efbe16b5cac7

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  10. Roger says:

    The current bearish pattern (EDT) in IBM.Rogerhttp://www.screencast.com/users/fast996/folders/Default/media/f949aa7c-6ad0-4785-a805-8f65e48edef2

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