wednesday update

SHORT TERM: market uptrend continues to eke out new highs, DOW +2
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher. Europe opened higher and closed +0.50%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Personal income was reported: +0.4% v +0.2%, and Personal spending reported: +0.5% v +0.7%. The market opened higher at SPX 1119 and moved up to 1122 in the first few minutes. At 10:00 New homes sales were reported lower: 355K v 400K, as was Consumer sentiment: 72.5% v 73.4%. The market pulled back on these reports but only to SPX 1116 by 10:30. Then the market, with the help of a declining USD, moved higher for the rest of the day to close near the highs. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.70%. Bonds lost 4 ticks, Crude rallied $2.10, Gold was $2.00 higher, and the USD was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1107 and then 1090, with resistance at 1133 and then 1168. Short term momentum remained around overbought for most of the day. Tomorrow, the weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, and then Durable goods at 10:00. Most markets will close early.
After monday’s gap up the SPX continues to work its way higher on light volume. Today’s push higher, into the SPX 1120’s, appears to have cleared the quite resilient 1107 OEW pivot. Next objective should be the 1133 pivot. Yesterday’s second revision to the Q3 GDP to +2.2% from the original +3.5% projection continues to be reported as proof of an economic recovery. However, when one views government GDP figures from 1948 graphically, (courtesy of Shadow Stats), there are no real signs of a recovery yet. Happy holidays, and best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend makes new high at SPX 1122
LONG TERM: bear market rally

About tony caldaro

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47 Responses to wednesday update

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  3. gls says:

    R B: The Nov 2 low was a very major low in my opinion. 18 days later the Dubaii day hit. 25 days from Nov 2 there was another low. Technically both could qualify ( for me ) as the first 5 week low. I really don\’t know which one I should use.From the second one the 2 and a half week low is due next week. That is what I meant for the next 6 to 7 low. I was trying to type out something quickly to Igor and forgot to say it. This segment is right – translated so it is bullish. Tops are difficult to predict. Slow stochs are high though.On Tuesday morning next week the 144th hour from the Dubaii day low will occur. Something to watch. A blow off high or a low.Maybe just an acceleration point. I don\’t have a good EW count that I love so I have been using Igor and Tony. Both seem to have a better handle on it than I do.I hope this answers your question. I have goofball methods, I know. I love the slow stochs. I love the 15 minute segments and 60 minutes cycles when they are working. I don\’t like going back below or above a range of one of those cycles after being on the other side of it.I have one more cycle I have been following every since the March lows. Yesterday was day 17 of a 17 day cycle. If you close above or below the range of that day the market should continue in the direction it proceeded from that day. Only a couple of times has the market since March reversed "back over " of a "range day" snce the March lows. You can go and back and check. Today the market closed above it.


  4. tony says:

    Happy holidays !!!


  5. R says:

    GLS: please give more detail on your cycle post earlier. You said 3 1/2 day low yesterday. Top could come any time for the next low, which would be 6 to 7 day low. So are you expecting us to go up today, Monday, and/or Tuesday and then around end of day Tuesday/early Wednesday to have another low? Is this low likely below the 1116 low or above it? I know you don\’t know for sure, just asking likely possibilities.


  6. Wiggin says:

    gls – it\’s not your message, it\’s your tone or your read on others. Everyone still calling a top, including Tony, but I see few if any yelling "short it". But just know, I appreciate your views anyway. lol Merry Christmas Tony and everyone


  7. Igor says:

    Thanks gls and puddy. Excellent. I will hold the neutral position in anticipation of the retracement, big or small, I don\’t know. I am inclined to think that there is more upside potential ahead. We shall see. Merry Christmas!


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