SHORT TERM: choppy consolidation day, DOW +14
Overnight all the Asian markets were lower. Europe opened higher but closed mixed. US index futures were flat overnight, and at 9:00 the Case-Shiller housing price report was +1.2% v +1.6%. At the open the market traded around unchanged and then rallied to SPX 1072 by 10:00. At this time Consumer confidence was reported lower 47.7% v 53.4%. The market immediately sold off hitting SPX 1061 within minutes. After hitting the OEW 1061 pivot the market then immediately reversed, rallying back to SPX 1072 by 10:30. After this quick whip like move the market started headed lower again as the USD index rallied. By 1:30 the SPX again hit 1061 as the USD index made new highs on the day. And yet again the market held the OEW pivot and started to rally. By 3:00 the SPX hit 1068 and then pulled back into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.30%. Bonds were up 27 ticks, Crude gained 65 cents, Gold slipped $4.00 and the EUR was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1061 and then 1041, with resistance at 1090 and then 1107. Short term momentum stayed around the oversold level for most of the day. Tomorrow, Durable goods orders at 8:30, then New home sales at 10:00.
The decline from SPX 1101 increased to 40 points today when the OEW 1061 pivot was hit. This decline does look impulsive and the labeling remains: wave 1 SPX 1074, wave 2 SPX 1096 and wave 3 underway. Since this also can be counted as an ABC, the two pivots noted yesterday (SPX 1061 and NDX 1720) need to be penetrated to the downside to continue the downside momentum. The market, despite the decline, is not extremely oversold by any measure. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend in jeopardy
LONG TERM: bear market