tuesday update

SHORT TERM: market consolidates after yesterday’s rally, DOW -47
Overnight the Asian markets were mostly higher. Europe opened lower and closed -0.25%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9:00 Case-Shiller reported housing prices rose for the third month in a row: +1.6% v +1.4%. At the open the market began to rally and hit SPX 1070 by 10:00. This cleared the OEW 1061 pivot, but it was the high for the day. Also at 10:00 Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 53.1% v 54.5%. The market pulled back on that news. Around 11:00 the FED issued the following press release:  http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20090929a.htm, regarding credit cards. At 12:00 the SPX hit 1058 and then started to rally. By 2:00 the SPX hit 1065 but faded to the 1061 pivot at the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ -0.35%. Bonds were up 3 ticks, Crude dipped 25 cents, Gold was flat, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1061 and then 1041, with resistance at 1090 and then 1107. Short term momentum was getting extremely overbought at SPX 1070, and then dropped to neutral during the pullback. Tomorrow, the ADP employment index and the final Q2 GDP revision around 8:30. Then at 9:45 the Chicago PMI. Later FED vice chairman Kohn makes a statement at the Cato Institute at 12:45, and then testimony from FED governor Tarullo in the Senate at 2:30.
Todays rally pushed the SPX through the 1061 pivot, but it came back to test it a couple of times during the day. Friday’s low at SPX 1041, right at the OEW pivot, appears to be the low for Minor wave 4. Since Minor wave 4 (1041) did not overlap Minor wave 1 (1039) a potential ending diagonal has not formed. Would expect the OEW 1061 pivot to maintain support and the market to start working its way higher soon. Best to your trading!  
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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  5. tony says:

    Yes, pivot ping pong.


  6. S2 says:

    Alex, you could be right, but EW would lean the other way (assuming it\’s a triangle). Most Ellioticians look for triangles in wave 4s and Bs. And, according to Tony, Prechter and other gurus, the count can legitimately have a missing 5th wave up from 979 to break 1080 (and my 60min RSI still supports that too). If the triangle were a B wave, we\’d expect to see a C wave down well below 1039 meeting your expectation of a down move, but it would not make sense in any of the topping counts out there, so a wave 4 triangle with wave 5 up still to come makes most sense to my puny brain. In other words, if the market goes down, I\’ll just claim it wasn\’t a triangle after all. 😉 I did mention I don\’t like 1041–>1070 as a 3 wave move, but everything else seems to fit for a triangle. ;-)Wiggin, no position currently, sold my once-profitable short from late yesterday for a minor gain during all the whipsaw. Arrrggghhh. I think I\’ll wait for a 1-2 from a possible triangle breakout. Good luck.


  7. Wiggin says:

    S2 – Nervous Bear?


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