friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold off, DOW -36
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened higher and closed +0.85%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the change in Personal income was reported at 0.0% v -1.1%, plus Consumer spending was reported +0.2% v +0.6%. The market rallied on the news and gapped up hitting 1039, a new uptrend high, at the opening. The OEW 1041 pivot held, however, and the market then started to selloff. At 10:00 Consumer confidence was reported at 65.7% v 63.2%, then the FED announced that they were reducing the monthly TAF auctions: The market continued to move lower. By 12:30 the SPX hit 1023 the low for the day, and then started to rally. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1030 and then faded into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW  were -0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds were up 9 ticks, Crude gained 30 cents, Gold rallied $10.00, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum was slightly overbought this morning but dropped during the selling and ended around neutral on the day.
The upside momentum heading into the close yesterday helped the market make a new uptrend high today at SPX 1039. The OEW 1041 pivot held again and the market sold off 16 points, right within the typical pullback range (13-16 pts) of this uptrend. There are several potential formations forming under the pivot, including a diagonal. Will take a good look this weekend. Best to yours!   
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend ekes out new high SPX 1039
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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15 Responses to friday update

  1. tony says:

    Serge,Bob is certainly making the rounds recently.


  2. tony says:

    Hi Jeremiah,Yes, that count is certainly valid.


  3. mmsac says:

    Jack, Reviewed your charts. really nice analysis. I\’d welcome your thoughts, particularly on oil, every now and then, Best, Mike


  4. Jman says:

    It has been a while since i posted here, but been checking in frequently. I like to say there are some real good brains at work here and I dont claim to be an expert, but heres 2c worth.gls > re: oilThe catalyst will be the dollar making another leg lower which seems seems the path of least resistance and should send oil higher. The charts seem to show room for another leg up & down for each. I dont look for oil to go over $85 after breaking over $75 and will probably be in a new higher range afterward for the intermedaite term. At first this will probably allow the S&P to move up too into early part of September, but that will probably be it for stocks. Intraday on Friday, I too was looking for that late day rally in the S&P, but it managed to close above the 6-day sma and last few times it did that after beginning a new leg up it managed to move up for at least the next few days. a good weekend all


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