thursday update

SHORT TERM: market rallies from slightly oversold levels, DOW +37
Overnight most of the Asian markets were lower. Europe opened lower and closed -0.65%. US index futures were flat overnight, and at 8:30 the first revision of Q2 remained unchanged at -1.0%, and the weekly Jobless claims were 570K v 580K. The market opened relatively flat at SPX 1027 and then dropped to 1016 by 10:00. That was the low for the day, right at the OEW 1018 pivot. As the market started to rebound from a slightly oversold short term momentum level the SPX rallied to 1025 by 12:30, and then paused for about an hour with only a 2 point pullback. The SPX then started to rally again when the USD/Bonds dropped. By 2:30 the SPX hit 1033 then eased back some into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.20%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude gained $1.40, Gold added $4.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1018 and then 990, with resistance at 1041 and then 1061. Short term momentum was oversold early and was nearly overbought late. Tomorrow, Consumer spending and Personal income at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment at 10:00.
Today’s drop to SPX 1016 helped to confirm five waves up from SPX 979 to 1038. The 22 point pullback was larger than the typical 13-16 point pullbacks during this uptrend and closer to the recent 39 point pullback Intermediate wave B. Today’s rally, however, to SPX 1033, now places the potential Primary wave B top scenario in a precarious situation. As it won’t take much on the upside to make a new uptrend high, and the OEW 1018 pivot was not broken on the downside. Therefore we repeat, as long as the OEW 1041 pivot holds (1049) the uptrend looks complete. If not, the 1061 pivot would be next on the agenda. Best to your trading!   
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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100 Responses to thursday update

  1. gls says:

    Wiggin: I hear you. Caveat to being near term bullish is the move off the day\’s low could be a "b".I don\’t want a close under Monday\’s low.


  2. Wiggin says:

    gls – post away right or wrong. At least if you are right, you have been right on the down moves too, not coming in after and being a jerk. I will say I am not as bullish as you, but open to it. I am looking hard at the possibility that the high hit today, everyone should try and turn off the noise and at least consider that possibility. You\’ve been on a roll since early July or longer. @#$% them if they can\’t take a joke! My advice is only don\’t be "Bullish Blind". That is an interesting article Forker posted about Canada.


  3. tony says:

    Enjoy the summer weekend


  4. tony says:

    The tolerance on the pivots is 7 points plus or minus.For the 1041 pivot that means 1034-1048 is an acceptable range.This is why I have continually posted 1049 as being beyond range, and a break through.


  5. gls says:

    R: Yea that\’s it. I hate it when people do that. Also, I think I may be Jinxing my position. It is like talking about a no hitter.


  6. tony says:

    Pivot bumper pool … funnySometimes, oddly enough, the SPX does get stuck between two pivots.


  7. Forkoholic says: Plans First U.S.-Dollar Global Bond in Decade


  8. R says:

    GLS: I interpret your comments as saying that you don\’t want to post your bullish comments because it\’s like you are rubbing salt into the wounds of the bears. If not, then my comment is wrong. But if that is basically what you were saying, I don\’t think that you should stop posting. I think the hurt bears on this board would rather have something to think about from the bull camp which might help their decisions instead of only hearing from bears and getting "group think" and continuing to bleed. I am bearish, but I don\’t consider bullish comments to be annoying, but rather something to consider. But of course, only when it comes from a credible source. There are some posters whose bullish comments I ignore because I don\’t think the poster is credible. In those cases I actually ignore the posts all together and don\’t even read them. But yours I do not ignore.


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