thursday update

SHORT TERM: market surges after three days of late day buying, DOW +84
Overnight all the Asian markets were higher. Europe opened higher and closed +1.85%. US index futures were higher overnight and at 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 584K v 559K. Nevertheless, the market gapped up at the open to SPX 982. It had closed at 975 yesterday, and the high for the uptrend was right at 982. The opening rally continued to about 11:00 when the SPX hit 997. This is still within the seven point tolerance of the OEW 990 pivot. A pullback followed to SPX 990 until about noon, then the market tried to add to its gains. By 3:00 the SPX could only get back to 995 when the FED made the following press release on Reg Z: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20090730a.htm. Heading into the close the market pulled back to close at 987. For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude rebounded gaining $3.35, Gold added $5.00, and even the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 961 and then 935, with resistance at 990 and then 1018. Short term momentum spiked higher during the morning and eased back to neutral late in the day. Tomorrow, Q2 GDP and the unemployment rate at 8:30, then Chicago PMI near 10:00.
The rally from the SPX 869 July 7th low made new highs today at 997, with only minor pullbacks of 13-15 points along the way. We continue to count this rally as Intermediate wave A of a three wave uptrend. This rally looks quite similar to Intermediate wave A of the Mar-Jun uptrend. That rally continued to move higher with negative divergences as well. After that rally gained 136 points it started to get choppy and formed a diagonal triangle high. Thus far this rally has gained 128 points. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

Investor
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100 Responses to thursday update

  1. MCKennedy says:

    There was no reason for that last leg up except to flush out some shorts.

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  2. hawk says:

    To add to the Newsweek cover, a post from my local newspaper:Has Obama beaten the Bush recession?Issues Beyond Palo Alto, posted by Greg, a resident of the Downtown North neighborhood, on Jul 26, 2009 at 11:16 pmToday\’s Wall Street Journal estimates that the national economy (GDP) bottomed out during the spring and should swing upward during the summer. A sustained turnaround in the GDP is the definition of the end of the recession. Analysts are crediting Obama and Bernanke for their successful stimulus/recovery plan.Web LinkToday\’s Bloomberg News has a similar report: Web LinkStock markets in the USA and around the world hit 10 month highs at the end of last week as businesses and investors show their optimism toward the future.I am so thankful to see that we are finally back to election day levels. I was surprised to hear it yes

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  3. Unknown says:

    Frank, bears ultimatly triumph. Barny guitner B obama fixenthis sh– buy maxing out credit card as average american credit busted.

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  4. Unknown says:

    Yes. I still look for 966 948 933. But this whole move from 666 has been stingy with countertrend moves. " thats cus thought on 3 camp

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  5. MCKennedy says:

    I want Dow 9000 by EOD

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  6. frank says:

    Hawk how about UUP to $50 and SPX goes to 200 🙂

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  7. frank says:

    By the way 98.8 on SPY serve a fairly significant support on intraday basis… there\’s been many many test already… so unless that gives, no chance for bears… and of course after 98.8 gives we have the diamond pattern support formed at today\’s low…

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  8. hawk says:

    call me crazie, UUP north of $27

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  9. frank says:

    Well, MCK and LEE, they only hope now for the bears is that we go below LOD hard… then we might just have a chance at closing the gap… or else… another last hour ramp is not out of question since funds want to push this sucker higher and to 1000+ 🙂

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  10. S2 says:

    Must say Kenny\’s intraday LDT post is shaping up nicely…http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/If so, 982.85 should be tested and possibly broken by several points by mid-day Monday before a wave 2 bounce.Not sure if Kenny would agree, but I can also see his "a of 2" actually concluding 2 with his 2bc and 3 finishing an LDT 1 of 3. If the 975 gap gets filled impulsively before a decent bounce, that scenario could be in play. Of course, all the choppy moves could be a complex correction too. Not easy but sentiment and negd make it difficult to favor the long side for more than scalping. Good luck.

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