thursday update

SHORT TERM: market surges after three days of late day buying, DOW +84
Overnight all the Asian markets were higher. Europe opened higher and closed +1.85%. US index futures were higher overnight and at 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 584K v 559K. Nevertheless, the market gapped up at the open to SPX 982. It had closed at 975 yesterday, and the high for the uptrend was right at 982. The opening rally continued to about 11:00 when the SPX hit 997. This is still within the seven point tolerance of the OEW 990 pivot. A pullback followed to SPX 990 until about noon, then the market tried to add to its gains. By 3:00 the SPX could only get back to 995 when the FED made the following press release on Reg Z: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20090730a.htm. Heading into the close the market pulled back to close at 987. For the day the SPX/DOW were +1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.75%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude rebounded gaining $3.35, Gold added $5.00, and even the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 961 and then 935, with resistance at 990 and then 1018. Short term momentum spiked higher during the morning and eased back to neutral late in the day. Tomorrow, Q2 GDP and the unemployment rate at 8:30, then Chicago PMI near 10:00.
The rally from the SPX 869 July 7th low made new highs today at 997, with only minor pullbacks of 13-15 points along the way. We continue to count this rally as Intermediate wave A of a three wave uptrend. This rally looks quite similar to Intermediate wave A of the Mar-Jun uptrend. That rally continued to move higher with negative divergences as well. After that rally gained 136 points it started to get choppy and formed a diagonal triangle high. Thus far this rally has gained 128 points. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

Investor
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100 Responses to thursday update

  1. Lee says:

    u 2 Tony …

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  2. tony says:

    Enjoy the weekend guys.

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  3. S2 says:

    If that last bump to 993 marked the end of 1-2-1-2 (with the second wave 1 being an LDT), then wave 3 should test 965-969 with some negd on the following waves 4-5-4-5. The lower downtrend line (990–>983–>?) could also be watched since it crosses 962ish at EOD Monday. Above 993 breaks this scenario. If the SPX downside plays out short-term and USD is bottoming as seems very likely to me, SPX may have trouble making much more than a marginal new high assuming a C wave up is still needed within the next few weeks. I have a Fib cluster at 1010ish (1007-1014) that would likely still prevent mass sector breakouts from occurring, but we did get very close already. VIX possibly breaking out of a wedge and USD bottoming would certainly help the bear cause. Have a great weekend!

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  4. Impulsive says:

    neg divergence on hourly..

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  5. MCKennedy says:

    I suspect it\’s GOLDMAN\’s law……

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  6. Doug says:

    Its Murphy\’s Law MCK..

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  7. hawk says:

    Come what may next week up or down. My stops are in.Have a great weekend!

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  8. Wiggin says:

    VIX up ????

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