monday update

SHORT TERM: market pulls back ahead of FOMC meeting, DOW -51
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed. Europe opened lower but closed +0.35%. US index futures were much lower overnight, then rallied with Europe, but the market still opened lower at SPX 857. It closed at SPX 866 on friday. After bouncing around for about an hour the market then rallied. By 12:00 The SPX hit 869 the high for the day. But as the TRANs average (-4.7%) continued to weaken on the swine flu news the market began to pullback. At 2:00 the SPX hit 855 and found some support and then bounced a bit higher into the close. The market spent most of the day within fridays range. At the close the SPX/DOW were -0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds were up about 3/4 points, Crude lost $1.45, Gold dropped $7.00, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX remains at 848 and then 789, with resistance at 912 and then 935. Short term momentum worked its way lower for most of the day. Tomorrow, the FED starts their FOMC meeting. Also, Case-Shiller home prices will be reported at 9:00, and then a Consumer confidence reading at 10:00. Some of the short term indicators suggest that Minor wave C of Intermediate wave A started on friday at SPX 876. But this market will need to break below SPX 850 to help confirm this short term scenario. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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100 Responses to monday update

  1. tony says:

    Hi Aureliano … great chart! How does that guy get so accurate? hahaThank Donna … just reading the charts.


  2. Aureliano says:

    McK: It also came very close to the convergence of the previous triangle line in the sand resistance and the longer term opti-bull 2-4 line. On my chart that occurred at 10:00am at 845 so not exact but close enough to the terminating point of the previous triangle.


  3. S2 says:

    My 15min and 60min indicators are turned down in alignment with bearish crosses. Most daily indicators have also turned down but stoch is still trying to roll over. 5min indicators are also down. Weekly is mixed. But, the market certainly has an opportunity to go down hard if it can breach 848 which is also about where the 20dSMA will be tomorrow. Lots of air below 848 down to the EW pivot, 50dSMA and BB20 at 789-805 with gaps to be filled at 825 ad 811. I\’m not confident this will happen with Fed/GDP awaiting and without a daily sell signal and with all this chop, but the opportunity has presented itself nonetheless.


  4. Amos says:

    IBM reported it would up its payout to its shareholders and add upto another $3 billion of buyback of its shares…this gave the general market a 21 minute trading bang to the clear out the stops…all of that bull run was loss at the end of day. Down we go….God bless


  5. mediatik says:

    at least whe closed red


  6. MCKennedy says:

    btw, the drop at the open today hit that 20wSMA & bounced off of it.


  7. MCKennedy says:

    The Dow has been trading the entire month of April in a band around the 20wMA (currently at 7944). Have to examine more closely for some better clues to direction.


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