tuesday update

SHORT TERM: after a choppy day the market closes mixed, DOW +36

Overnight the Asian markets were again mixed. Europe opened lower but closed +0.30%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 the Commerce Dept. revised Q3 GDP slightly lower, from -0.3% to -0.5%, Q4 should be a lot worse. Also around 8:30 the FED announced another alphabet lending program: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081125a.htm, and a GSE debt purchase program: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20081125b.htm. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 866, it had closed at 852 yesterday. After a small pullback it rallied to the high for the day at SPX 869 by 10:00. Also at 10:00 the Conference board reported Consumer confidence rose to 44.9% from 38.0%. The market then pulled back into a series of lower lows bottoming at SPX 835 by around 2:00. Then a rally into the close helped to finish the day mixed. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.75%. Bonds were up nearly two points, Crude lost $3.50, Gold gained $2.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 848 and then 789, with resistance at 912 and then 935. Short term momentum was extremely overbought this morning, pulled back to neutral, and then rose into the close. Tomorrow at 8:30 the weekly Jobless claims, Personal incomes, Consumer spending, the core PCE and Durable goods orders. Then at 10:00, the Chicago PMI, new Home sales and another Consumer sentiment reading. Thursday is a holiday: Thanksgiving.

The general market has now risen for three days in a row. This is the first time this has happened since late August. The short term wave structure for the 5th wave down does not look like five waves into the recent lows. It was quite choppy. As a result we are maintaining two short term counts, one on the SPX and another on the DOW. Right now the market appears to be in the middle of both. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend low at SPX 741

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS:  http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987