tuesday update

SHORT TERM: volatility works both ways, DOW +889
Overnight the Asian markets mostly rebounded strongly, Europe open higher and closed +6.6%. US index futures were sold off early overnight then rallied strongly heading into the morning. At the open the market gapped up to SPX 864 and continued to rally to 882 by 10:00. The Conference board then reported consumer confidence at a record low of 38, the lowest reading in the 41 year history of the agency. Stocks sold off on the news making a slightly lower low than yesterday at SPX 845 by 11:00. A rally by 1:00 to 875 was followed by a pullback to 860 by 2:00, and then the market soared 80 points to SPX 940 heading into the close. With the FOMC meeting underway this market may be front running an important announcement tomorrow. At the close the SPX/DOW were +10.85%, and the NDX/NAZ were +10.20%. Bonds dropped more than 3/4 points, Crude gained $1.25, Gold added $6.75, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX jumps to 935 and then 912, with resistance at 961 and then 990. Short term momentum was slightly oversold at this morning’s lows, put in a positive divergence, and is now overbought at the close. Tommorow the FED will announce its FOMC determination around 2:00, and in the morning Durable goods will be reported at 8:30.
Thus far the SPX continues to hold the 848 pivot, even retested it today before rallying. Either a diagonal triangle 5th wave was completed today, or one is in progress with today’s rally the 4th wave. The SPX pivot at 990 now becomes the determining factor. Should the market rally above this level it is then likely a new uptrend is underway. If the market fails to break through, then a retest of the 840 pivot will be needed to finish the diagonal triangle 5th wave. With the VIX at current levels it might not take long for the market to rally up to major resistance at SPX 1179. This is the level from where it broke down in late September. SPX 990 and 840 are the two controlling pivots. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend holds SPX 840 again
LONG TERM: bear market, expecting an uptrend soon

About tony caldaro

Investor
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100 Responses to tuesday update

  1. CT says:

    Bud,

    We have similar paths.

    I also lived in the southern interior of China.  I lived in Wuhan, a small town of about 11 million people.

    I agree they are much friendlier and down to earth.  I met some great
    friend there.  I helped a lady that I worked with their get into the
    University of Michigan (my Alma Matter).  She is now married with a new
    born kid and doing great.  That\’s what I am about.  Helping others. 
    That\’s what I like about this board.  people helping people.

    I am a Black guy.  Born in Detroit, but I also lived in Chicago as a
    kid on the north side.  I have never voted color or party.  With theses
    unusual circumstances that we find ourselves in,  I truly believe
    Barack is the best person for the job at this time.  One thing is for
    certain.  Whoever wins will have a mess on their hands.

    Like

  2. Stephen says:

    have you guys seen the horror movie "The Ring".
    a gal was thrown in to a deep well, she tried for many months trying to climb out of the well.
    leaving behind legs, fingers, toes, skins, eyeballs caught in the crevices of the inner wall of the well.
     
    if SPX is going to rally from here, it would find lots of blood, human tissues, souls caught in every level. People have been loosing lives over this past week.
     
    The souls would not be left in peace.

    Like

  3. Impulsive says:

    tony, you should come to the party from time to time..

    Like

  4. tony says:

    You are guys funny.
    Remember McCain knows how to catch Bin Laden, but would tell anyone until/if he wins.

    Like

  5. Ron says:

    Maybe an EDT 5th of C?

    Like

  6. Jenifer says:

    It was on GE news guys. The press picked up a report from Immelt that had them guiding lower "if" we enter a global recession.

    Like

  7. Impulsive says:

    do you guys think tomorrow\’s number was leaked?

    Like

  8. H says:

    Lee, I\’ve got loads of calls that are worthless.  Hope that makes you feel better ! 🙂  Indexes are too tricky in here.  Sticking to momo.
     
    Looks like GDP got out and crash.

    Like

  9. egoldspot says:

    I must I have never seen a disgruntle, manhandled, physciatric, chaostic, f****, bamboozeled market like this! and I have survived with even day!

    Like

  10. egoldspot says:

    For a while I thought Bin Laden got caught so we rally 🙂 Then I found out bunker they boomed
    didn\’t have him in it!

    Like

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