friday update

SHORT TERM: rally fizzles to end the month, DOW -171
Overnight the Asian markets were all higher, and Europe opened higher then closed +0.45%. At 8:30 the core PCE was reported up 0.3%, while consumer spending and incomes declined. Stocks gapped down lower at the opening when the SPX opened around 1292. Yesterday’s close was SPX 1301. A small bounce followed to 1297 by 10:00, but the market headed lower again hitting 1285 by noon. Another rally followed to 1291 by 1:30, but that failed as well. At the close the SPX/DOW were -1.40%, and the NDX/NAZ were -2.00%. Bonds were down four ticks, Crude was flat, Gold dropped $2.00, and the Euro was lower. Support for the SPX drops to 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum, which was extremely overbought yesterday, dropped below neutral today. The near term indicators pulled back to neutral as well. Monday is Labor day is the US. Maybe when everyone gets back to work this market will actually do something. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: SPX 1313 still the uptrend high
LONG TERM: bear market

About tony caldaro

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31 Responses to friday update

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  3. tony says:

    Hi egoldspot,
    The DOW has an alternate count, it\’s not important until confirmed.
    The SPX, the primary count, still has another downtrend to complete Major C.
    Short term this market does not look ready to go down. 


  4. FTLurch says:

    I\’m less bearish, that\’s all  .. 🙂


  5. Forkoholic says:

    FTLurch:>I\’ve been trying a bit too hard these last 2 weeks to support the 1313 top
    Elliott Oscilator does support 1313 as a top of some wave – the question is "is it a of abc up or end of 2 and we\’re started 3 down?" When 1 of 3 completed on 1st fractal  Elliott Oscilator clearly crossed 0.
    So we are somewhere between bc and 1 of 3 ;)))


  6. Forkoholic says:

    correction168 days since 01/23/08 176(+8), 180(+12)


  7. FTLurch says:

    Hey, everyoneAfter a bit of weekend homework … looking at hourly charts of spx/indu … it occurred to me that I\’ve been trying a bit too hard these last 2 weeks to support the 1313 top.  Most talk here is about SPX … there is a lot of overlap since 1313.  The past 6 months I have been looking to the INDU for a cleaner and leading count … and there is a lesser degree (than SPX) of overlap there now, but more than what has not mattered in the past.I will be more cautious in this sell-off when we see 1275/78 this time … of course not getting long, but will take 50%+ profit and see what happens … above 1287 again will signal to me to go flat and be patient about waiting for the next short – Erik, thanks for the reminder …


  8. Forkoholic says:

    Interesting clusters coming up – in 2-3 trading days, 8-9 and 12-13224 days since 10/31/07 233(+9), 236(+12)207 days since 11/26/07 216(+9), 233(+26)196 days since 12/11/07  199(+3), 216(+15)186 days since 12/26/07 189(+3), 199(+13)168 days since 11/23/08 176(+8), 180(+12)131 days since  3/17 134(+3), 144(+13)87 days since  05/19 89(+2) 108(+21)48 days since  07/15 55(+7) 62(+14)
    clusters:============= (+2) count 1 (+3) count 3============= (+7) count 1 (+8) count 1 (+9) count 2============= (+12) count 2 (+13) count 2 (+14) count 1 (+15) count 1============= (+21) count 1
     (+26) count 1



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