SHORT TERM: market continues bounce off 1261 pivot, DOW +90
Overnight the Asian markets were mixed, and Europe opened lower but closed mixed as well. At 8:30, July durable goods orders were reported +1.3% and June was upgraded to +1.3% as well. Yet both inventories and unfilled order rose 0.8%. The market opened relatively unchanged. After a dip to 1270 by 10:00 a rally followed. By 10:30 the SPX hit 1280, pulled back to 1274 in the next hour, and then rallied to 1285 by 1:00. After that the SPX moved lower, in a choppy fashion, into the close. For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds gained about ten ticks, Crude added $2.00, Gold rose $4.00, and the Euro was higher. Support for the SPX remains at 1261 and then 1240, with resistance at 1287 and then 1316. Short term momentum was a bit overbought at today’s highs, and the near term indicators are on the rise again. Tomorrow, the weekly unemployment claims, and the first Q2 GDP revision at 8:30.
Since early August the SPX has pulled back to the 1261 pivot three times. Each time it has found support. The first launched the rally to the uptrend high at 1313. The second, last week, ended on friday at 1293. The third, this tuesday, has now rallied to 1285 thus far. Therefore we have successively lower highs, which would suggest a breakdown eventually. However, if this rally were to exceed the previous one at SPX 1293, then a retest of the highs is also possible. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend high at SPX 1313
LONG TERM: bear market